Forecasting for the Bank's Asset-Liability Management
The paper aims at finding the most optimal individual, collective, and combined yield curve forecasting models. It is shown that incorporating macroeconomic information improves the model's goodness-of-fit characteristics. It is also proved that combined forecasts perform better on average when are based upon weights for individual ones
References listed on IDEAS
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- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000.
"Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models,"
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- De Pooter, Michiel & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Predicting the term structure of interest rates incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information," MPRA Paper 2512, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Mar 2007.
- Michiel D. de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2007. "Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty, Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Information," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-028/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Qiang Dai & Thomas Philippon, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nikolaou, Kleopatra & Modugno, Michele, 2009. "The forecasting power of internal yield curve linkages," Working Paper Series 1044, European Central Bank.
- Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
- Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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