Frequent Turbulence? A Dynamic Copula Approach
How common and how persistent are turbulent periods? We address these questions by developing and applying a dynamic dependence framework. In order to answer the first question we estimate an unconditional mixture model of normal copulas, based on both economic and econometric justification. In order to answer the second question, we develop and estimate a hidden markov model of copulas, which allows for dynamic clustering of correlations. These models permit one to infer the relative importance of turbulent and quiescent periods in international markets. Empirically, the three most striking findings are as follows. First, for the unconditional model, turbulent regimes are more common. Second, the conditional copula model dominates the unconditional model. Third, turbulent regimes tend to be more persistent.
|Date of creation:||11 Oct 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: NHH, Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway|
Phone: +47 55 95 92 93
Fax: +47 55 95 96 50
Web page: http://www.nhh.no/en/research-faculty/department-of-business-and-management-science.aspx
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew J. Patton, 2004.
"On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics,
Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 130-168.
- Andrew J. Patton, 2002. "On the out-of-sample importance of skewness and asymetric dependence for asset allocation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24951, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- William Schwert, G., 2002. "Stock volatility in the new millennium: how wacky is Nasdaq?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 3-26, January.
- G. William Schwert, 2001. "Stock Volatility in the New Millennium: How Wacky Is Nasdaq?," NBER Working Papers 8436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
- Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2006_010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stein Fossen)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.