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Estimating the Baumol-Bowen and Balassa-Samuelson Effects in the Polish Economy - a Disaggregated Approach


  • Karolina Konopczak

    () (Polish Ministry of Finance and Institute for Market, Consumption and Business Cycles Research)

  • Andrzej Torój

    () (Polish Ministry of Finance)


This paper estimates the magnitude of the Baumol-Bowen and Balassa-Samuleson effects in the Polish economy. The purpose of the analysis is to establish to what extent the differential price dynamics in Poland and in the euro area and the real appreciation of PLN against EUR are explained by the differential in respective productivity dynamics. The historical contribution of the Baumol-Bowen effect to Polish inflation rate is estimated at 0:9 - 1:0 percentage points in the short run. According to estimation results, the Balassa-Samuelson effect contributed around 0:9 to 1:0 percentage point per annum to the rate of relative price growth between Poland and the euro area and 1:0 to 1:2 p.p. to real exchange rate appreciation. The long-run effects are of an approximately twice larger magnitude. Sub-sample calculations and productivity trends over the last decade suggest that this impact should be declining. However, its size is still non-negligible for policymakers in the context of euro adoption in Poland.

Suggested Citation

  • Karolina Konopczak & Andrzej Torój, 2010. "Estimating the Baumol-Bowen and Balassa-Samuelson Effects in the Polish Economy - a Disaggregated Approach," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(2), pages 117-150, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:2:y:2010:i:4:p:117-150

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Gaofeng Han & Tommy Wu, 2014. "Productivity Growth of the Nontradable Sectors in China," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 655-666, November.
    2. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:6:p:1019-1034 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Karolina Konopczak, 2013. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect and the channels of its absorption in the Central and Eastern European Countries," NBP Working Papers 163, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.

    More about this item


    Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis; monetary integration; real appreciation; panel cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics


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