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Analýza všeobecné rovnováhy pro český finanční trh a model finanční křehkosti
[General Equilibrium Analysis of the Czech Financial Market and a Financial Fragility Model]

Author

Listed:
  • Ondřej Machek
  • Luboš Smrčka
  • Jiří Hnilica
  • Markéta Arltová
  • Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to create a financial fragility model for the Czech financial sector. We adapt the Goodhart-Tsomocos model which is based on general equilibrium with incomplete markets, money and default. The calibration of the model is based on publicly available data from the period 2003-2011. Finally, we perform comparative statics to show how the key variables of the model respond to possible events. The model can be used by government institutions to stress-test the banking sector, as well as by banking and other financial institutions to estimate the development of, inter alia, the default rates of their clients. The model also incorporates default of households and may be used, after further extension, in predicting households' default rates with respect to the behaviour of banks in consequence of changes in macroeconomic parameters of the environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ondřej Machek & Luboš Smrčka & Jiří Hnilica & Markéta Arltová & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2014. "Analýza všeobecné rovnováhy pro český finanční trh a model finanční křehkosti [General Equilibrium Analysis of the Czech Financial Market and a Financial Fragility Model]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(4), pages 437-458.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2014:y:2014:i:4:id:963:p:437-458
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.963
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2005. "A risk assessment model for banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 197-224, September.
    2. Goodhart, C. A. E., 2010. "The Changing Role of Central Banks," Working Papers 11-27, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    3. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A model to analyse financial fragility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 107-142, January.
    4. Charles Goodhart, 2010. "The changing role of central banks," BIS Working Papers 326, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Tsvetomira Tsenova, 2014. "International monetary transmission with bank heterogeneity and default risk," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 217-241, May.
    6. Mr. Adolfo Barajas & Mr. Roberto Steiner, 2002. "Credit Stagnation in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2002/053, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Agustín Saade & Daniel Osorio & Dairo Estrada, 2007. "An equilibrium approach to financial stability analysis: the Colombian case," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 75-105, January.
    8. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Sunirand, Pojanart & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility: applications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September.
    9. Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik, 2005. "Default and Punishment in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 1-37, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ondřej Machek & Luboš Smrčka, 2015. "An updated Model of Financial Fragility based on General Equilibrium Analysis [Aktualizace modelu finanční křehkosti založeného na analýze všeobecné rovnováhy]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(4), pages 23-42.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; Czech Republic; banking; financial fragility; regulatory policy; general equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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