IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlpep/v2019y2019i2id690p155-177.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Behavioural Attention on the Households Foreign Currency Savings as a Response to the External Macroeconomic Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Vilma Deltuvaitė
  • Svatopluk Kapounek
  • Petr Koráb

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of behavioural attention on the households' foreign currency savings as a response to the external macroeconomic shocks. The information that the households acquire via different communication channels is expected to influence their decisions regarding their savings' allocation into different currencies. This study has applied the fundamental macroeconomic models by including individuals' attention to the specific risks and search interest in specific keywords on Google in order to assess the impact of acquired information and its communication channel on the households' foreign currency savings. We employed a two-level mixed effects model including macroeconomic fundamentals and individuals' attention to the information determinants. We solved a problem of a long list of potential explanatory variables (keywords) by employing the Bayesian Model Averaging. This study assumes that households are more sensitive to the macroeconomic shocks (factors) if they search simultaneously for infor-mation on Google about these factors or specific related risks. The results emphasize the role behavioural attention during financial turmoil and economic downturn periods, especially in the environment of very low interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Vilma Deltuvaitė & Svatopluk Kapounek & Petr Koráb, 2019. "Impact of Behavioural Attention on the Households Foreign Currency Savings as a Response to the External Macroeconomic Shocks," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2019(2), pages 155-177.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2019:y:2019:i:2:id:690:p:155-177
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.690
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.690.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge

    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.690.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Eliane Araújo & Paulo Gala, 2014. "An empirical study of the substitution of foreign for domestic savings in Brazil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 15(1), pages 54-67.
    2. Levent Bulut, 2018. "Google Trends and the forecasting performance of exchange rate models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 303-315, April.
    3. Branislav Saxa, 2014. "Forecasting Mortgages: Internet Search Data as a Proxy for Mortgage Credit Demand," Working Papers 2014/14, Czech National Bank.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    5. Martin Guzi & Pablo de Pedraza García, 2015. "A web survey analysis of subjective well-being," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 48-67, April.
    6. Vlastakis, Nikolaos & Markellos, Raphael N., 2012. "Information demand and stock market volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1808-1821.
    7. Arifovic, Jasmina, 2001. "Evolutionary dynamics of currency substitution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 395-417, March.
    8. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Levent Bulut, 2018. "Google Trends and the forecasting performance of exchange rate models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 303-315, April.
    2. Jan Christoph Neumann, 2019. "Hedging Currency Risks? An Evaluation of SMEs in Northern Germany," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 5(2), pages 129-142, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign exchange; macroeconomic shocks; households; behavioural attention; Google Trends; Bayesian Model Averaging;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2019:y:2019:i:2:id:690:p:155-177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stanislav Vojir). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.