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Impact of Behavioural Attention on the Households Foreign Currency Savings as a Response to the External Macroeconomic Shocks


  • Vilma Deltuvaitė
  • Svatopluk Kapounek
  • Petr Koráb


This paper investigates the impact of behavioural attention on the households' foreign currency savings as a response to the external macroeconomic shocks. The information that the households acquire via different communication channels is expected to influence their decisions regarding their savings' allocation into different currencies. This study has applied the fundamental macroeconomic models by including individuals' attention to the specific risks and search interest in specific keywords on Google in order to assess the impact of acquired information and its communication channel on the households' foreign currency savings. We employed a two-level mixed effects model including macroeconomic fundamentals and individuals' attention to the information determinants. We solved a problem of a long list of potential explanatory variables (keywords) by employing the Bayesian Model Averaging. This study assumes that households are more sensitive to the macroeconomic shocks (factors) if they search simultaneously for infor-mation on Google about these factors or specific related risks. The results emphasize the role behavioural attention during financial turmoil and economic downturn periods, especially in the environment of very low interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Vilma Deltuvaitė & Svatopluk Kapounek & Petr Koráb, 2019. "Impact of Behavioural Attention on the Households Foreign Currency Savings as a Response to the External Macroeconomic Shocks," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2019(2), pages 155-177.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2019:y:2019:i:2:id:690:p:155-177
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.690

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Eliane Araújo & Paulo Gala, 2014. "An empirical study of the substitution of foreign for domestic savings in Brazil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 15(1), pages 54-67.
    2. Levent Bulut, 2018. "Google Trends and the forecasting performance of exchange rate models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 303-315, April.
    3. Branislav Saxa, 2014. "Forecasting Mortgages: Internet Search Data as a Proxy for Mortgage Credit Demand," Working Papers 2014/14, Czech National Bank.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    5. Martin Guzi & Pablo de Pedraza García, 2015. "A web survey analysis of subjective well-being," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 48-67, April.
    6. Vlastakis, Nikolaos & Markellos, Raphael N., 2012. "Information demand and stock market volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1808-1821.
    7. Arifovic, Jasmina, 2001. "Evolutionary dynamics of currency substitution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 395-417, March.
    8. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Levent Bulut, 2018. "Google Trends and the forecasting performance of exchange rate models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 303-315, April.
    2. Jan Christoph Neumann, 2019. "Hedging Currency Risks? An Evaluation of SMEs in Northern Germany," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 5(2), pages 129-142, December.

    More about this item


    foreign exchange; macroeconomic shocks; households; behavioural attention; Google Trends; Bayesian Model Averaging;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions


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