IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/marecl/v21y2019i4d10.1057_s41278-018-0110-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk analysis of marine cargoes and major port disruptions

Author

Listed:
  • Xueni Gou

    (Nanyang Technological University)

  • Jasmine Siu Lee Lam

    (Nanyang Technological University)

Abstract

As an interface between sea and land, ports are exposed to a wide range of natural hazards such as cyclones, floods and tsunami. At the same time, marine cargoes are growing both in terms of volume and value. Besides their exposure to various hazards during the sea trip, their concentration in ports increases the risk to the cargo itself as well as to the port. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, our study proposes a framework for catastrophe risk analysis of marine cargoes and ports by breaking-down the terminal operation process. This allows a more in-depth analysis by investigating the different parts of that process. Second, the study formulates a State Transition model for the simulation of scenarios. This is an integrated and robust risk model, to analyse exposure of marine cargoes and ports to natural hazards. The port of Laem Chabang is chosen as an example for demonstrating the risk simulation analysis. Findings show that losses can be in the form of both physical loss/damage and interruption loss with extensive cargo accumulation due to port disruptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Xueni Gou & Jasmine Siu Lee Lam, 2019. "Risk analysis of marine cargoes and major port disruptions," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(4), pages 497-523, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:21:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1057_s41278-018-0110-3
    DOI: 10.1057/s41278-018-0110-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41278-018-0110-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41278-018-0110-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saut Gurning & Stephen Cahoon, 2011. "Analysis of multi-mitigation scenarios on maritime disruptions," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 251-268, May.
    2. Cheng-Hsien Hsieh & Hui-Huang Tai & Yang-Ning Lee, 2014. "Port vulnerability assessment from the perspective of critical infrastructure interdependency," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 589-606, November.
    3. Roberta Scarsi, 2007. "The bulk shipping business: market cycles and shipowners’ biases," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 577-590, December.
    4. Jasmine Siu Lee Lam & Jonatan A. Lassa, 2017. "Risk assessment framework for exposure of cargo and ports to natural hazards and climate extremes," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Vander Hoorn, Stephen & Knapp, Sabine, 2015. "A multi-layered risk exposure assessment approach for the shipping industry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 21-33.
    6. Theo Notteboom & Jasmine Siu Lee Lam, 2014. "Dealing with uncertainty and volatility in shipping and ports," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 611-614, December.
    7. S. Athanasatos & S. Michaelides & M. Papadakis, 2014. "Identification of weather trends for use as a component of risk management for port operations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(1), pages 41-61, May.
    8. Stéphane Hallegatte & Nicola Ranger & Olivier Mestre & Patrice Dumas & Jan Corfee-Morlot & Celine Herweijer & Robert Wood, 2011. "Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 113-137, January.
    9. Jasmine Siu Lee Lam & Shiling Su, 2015. "Disruption risks and mitigation strategies: an analysis of Asian ports," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 415-435, July.
    10. Austin Becker & Michele Acciaro & Regina Asariotis & Edgard Cabrera & Laurent Cretegny & Philippe Crist & Miguel Esteban & Andrew Mather & Steve Messner & Susumu Naruse & Adolf Ng & Stefan Rahmstorf &, 2013. "A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 683-695, October.
    11. Vinh V. Thai, 2009. "Effective maritime security: conceptual model and empirical evidence," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 147-163, April.
    12. Chih-Hao Wen & Ping-Yu Hsu & Ming-Shien Cheng, 2017. "Applying intelligent methods in detecting maritime smuggling," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(3), pages 573-599, August.
    13. Øyvind Berle & James B. Rice Jr. & Bjørn Egil Asbørnslett, 2011. "Failure modes in the maritime transportation system: a functional approach to throughput vulnerability," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 605-632, March.
    14. K. Akatsuka & K. Leggate, 2001. "Perceptions of foreign exchange rate risk in the shipping industry," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 235-249, July.
    15. Jomon Aliyas Paul & Leo MacDonald, 2017. "An empirical analysis of US vessel-related port accidents (2002–2012): Impact of union membership and port efficiency on accident incidence and economic damage," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(4), pages 723-748, December.
    16. J. Wang & H. S. Sii & J. B. Yang & A. Pillay & D. Yu & J. Liu & E. Maistralis & A. Saajedi, 2004. "Use of Advances in Technology for Maritime Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 1041-1063, August.
    17. Austin Becker & Satoshi Inoue & Martin Fischer & Ben Schwegler, 2012. "Climate change impacts on international seaports: knowledge, perceptions, and planning efforts among port administrators," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 5-29, January.
    18. Athena Roumboutsos & Nikitas Nikitakos & Stefanos Gritzalis, 2005. "Information technology network security risk assessment and management framework for shipping companies," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 421-432, October.
    19. Berle, Øyvind & Asbjørnslett, Bjørn Egil & Rice, James B., 2011. "Formal Vulnerability Assessment of a maritime transportation system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(6), pages 696-705.
    20. Amir H. Alizadeh & Nikos K. Nomikos, 2009. "Shipping Derivatives and Risk Management," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-23580-9.
    21. Goerlandt, Floris & Montewka, Jakub, 2015. "Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 115-134.
    22. Jomon Aliyas Paul & Michael J Maloni, 2010. "Modeling the effects of port disasters," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 12(2), pages 127-146, June.
    23. Cheng-Hsien Hsieh, 2014. "Disaster risk assessment of ports based on the perspective of vulnerability," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 851-864, November.
    24. Vilko, Jyri P.P. & Hallikas, Jukka M., 2012. "Risk assessment in multimodal supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 586-595.
    25. Barnes, Paul & Oloruntoba, Richard, 2005. "Assurance of security in maritime supply chains: Conceptual issues of vulnerability and crisis management," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 519-540, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Truong Ngoc Cuong & Le Ngoc Bao Long & Hwan-Seong Kim & Sam-Sang You, 2023. "Data analytics and throughput forecasting in port management systems against disruptions: a case study of Busan Port," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 25(1), pages 61-89, March.
    2. Bi Wang & Kwai Sang Chin & Qin Su, 2022. "Risk management and market structures in seaport–dry port systems," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 24(1), pages 114-137, March.
    3. Li, Junjun & Yu, Anqi & Xu, Bowei, 2022. "Risk propagation and evolution analysis of multi-level handlings at automated terminals based on double-layer dynamic network model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 605(C).
    4. Egor PLOTNIKOV & Aleksandr RAKHMANGULOV, 2021. "Modeling China'S Dry Port Cooperation In Supply Chains," Transport Problems, Silesian University of Technology, Faculty of Transport, vol. 16(3), pages 89-103, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Randrianarisoa, Laingo M. & Zhang, Anming, 2019. "Adaptation to climate change effects and competition between ports: Invest now or later?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 279-322.
    2. Panahi, Roozbeh & Ng, Adolf K.Y. & Pang, Jiayi, 2020. "Climate change adaptation in the port industry: A complex of lingering research gaps and uncertainties," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 10-29.
    3. Pitilakis, Kyriazis & Argyroudis, Sotiris & Fotopoulou, Stavroula & Karafagka, Stella & Kakderi, Kalliopi & Selva, Jacopo, 2019. "Application of stress test concepts for port infrastructures against natural hazards. The case of Thessaloniki port in Greece," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 240-257.
    4. Hossain, Niamat Ullah Ibne & Nur, Farjana & Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Jaradat, Raed & Marufuzzaman, Mohammad & Puryear, Stephen M., 2019. "A Bayesian network based approach for modeling and assessing resilience: A case study of a full service deep water port," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 378-396.
    5. Cao, Xinhu & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2019. "A fast reaction-based port vulnerability assessment: Case of Tianjin Port explosion," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 11-33.
    6. Laure Rousset & César Ducruet, 2020. "Disruptions in Spatial Networks: a Comparative Study of Major Shocks Affecting Ports and Shipping Patterns," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 423-447, June.
    7. Jasper Verschuur & Raghav Pant & Elco Koks & Jim Hall, 2022. "A systemic risk framework to improve the resilience of port and supply-chain networks to natural hazards," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 24(3), pages 489-506, September.
    8. Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee & Bai, Xiwen, 2016. "A quality function deployment approach to improve maritime supply chain resilience," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 16-27.
    9. Wang, Nanxi & Wu, Min & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2023. "Assessment of port resilience using Bayesian network: A study of strategies to enhance readiness and response capacities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    10. Balakrishnan, Srijith & Lim, Taehoon & Zhang, Zhanmin, 2022. "A methodology for evaluating the economic risks of hurricane-related disruptions to port operations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 58-79.
    11. Laure Rousset & César Ducruet, 2020. "Disruptions in Spatial Networks: a Comparative Study of Major Shocks Affecting Ports and Shipping Patterns," Post-Print halshs-02588551, HAL.
    12. Cheng-Hsien Hsieh, 2014. "Disaster risk assessment of ports based on the perspective of vulnerability," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 851-864, November.
    13. Sunil K. Mohanty & Roar Aadland & Sjur Westgaard & Stein Frydenberg & Hilde Lillienskiold & Cecilie Kristensen, 2021. "Modelling Stock Returns and Risk Management in the Shipping Industry," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-25, April.
    14. Nguyen, Son & Chen, Peggy Shu-Ling & Du, Yuquan & Shi, Wenming, 2019. "A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 203-227.
    15. Zhou, Yusheng & Li, Xue & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2022. "Holistic risk assessment of container shipping service based on Bayesian Network Modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    16. Austin Becker & Michele Acciaro & Regina Asariotis & Edgard Cabrera & Laurent Cretegny & Philippe Crist & Miguel Esteban & Andrew Mather & Steve Messner & Susumu Naruse & Adolf Ng & Stefan Rahmstorf &, 2013. "A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 683-695, October.
    17. Yang, Yi-Chih & Ge, Ying-En, 2020. "Adaptation strategies for port infrastructure and facilities under climate change at the Kaohsiung port," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 232-244.
    18. Clemente, D. & Rosa-Santos, P. & Taveira-Pinto, F., 2021. "On the potential synergies and applications of wave energy converters: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    19. Yang, Rui-feng & Hu, Rong & Xiao, Yi-bin & Deng, Xia & Wang, Kun, 2022. "Seaport's investment under disaster information asymmetry between public and private operators," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 89-112.
    20. HOSSAIN, Niamat Ullah Ibne & Amrani, Safae El & Jaradat, Raed & Marufuzzaman, Mohammad & Buchanan, Randy & Rinaudo, Christina & Hamilton, Michael, 2020. "Modeling and assessing interdependencies between critical infrastructures using Bayesian network: A case study of inland waterway port and surrounding supply chain network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:21:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1057_s41278-018-0110-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.