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Forward Guidance at the Zero Lower Bound in a Model of Price-Level Targeting

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  • Gerhard Illing
  • Thomas Siemsen

Abstract

We study monetary policy at the zero lower bound in a traceable three-period model, in which price-level targeting emerges endogenously in the welfare function. We characterize optimal price-level forward guidance under discretion and commitment. Potentially non-monotonic discretionary welfare losses are lowest with perfectly flexible prices. Price-level targeting introduces a new constraint on optimal forward guidance that restricts the credible amount of overshooting. With this constraint, the zero lower bound may be binding even after the shock has abated. We characterize conditions when the commitment to hold nominal rates at zero for an extended period is optimal. Finally, we introduce government spending and show that under persistently low policy rates optimal government spending becomes more front-loaded, while procyclical austerity fares worse than discretionary government spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhard Illing & Thomas Siemsen, 2016. "Forward Guidance at the Zero Lower Bound in a Model of Price-Level Targeting," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(1), pages 47-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:62:y:2016:i:1:p:47-67.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifv011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Fiszeder & Ilona Pietryka, 2018. "Monetary policy in steering the EONIA and POLONIA rates in the Eurosystem and Poland: a comparative analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 445-470, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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