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Oil Price Behaviour, Exchange Rate Movement And The Covid-19 Pandemic In Nigeria: Analysis Of The First Three Quarters Of 2020

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  • Jimoh O. Saka

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Lagos State University, Ojo, Nigeria)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the response of oil price and exchange rate to the corona virus pandemic shock aside from the link between oil price and exchange rate for the first three quarters of 2020 in Nigeria. The theoretical framework emanates from the informal approach and the terms of trade channels. Using VAR cointegration approach, results show existence of long run relationship among the oil price, exchange rate movement and the corona virus indicators based on Max-Eigen and Trace test statistic. End of first quarter oil price, discharge rate and fatality rate negatively relate with current exchange rate. First quarter exchange rate and fatality rate positively relates to oil price behaviour in the third quarter while end of first quarter discharge rate increase fosters oil price decline. First quarter spread rate increase gradually reduces oil demand and the price in the third quarter. All corona virus indicators and exchange rate variable Granger Cause current oil price. Diversification is key to widen export base and increase foreign exchange and stability. Policy measures to sustain the economy in the post COVID-19 and beyond are necessary for long term development.

Suggested Citation

  • Jimoh O. Saka, 2021. "Oil Price Behaviour, Exchange Rate Movement And The Covid-19 Pandemic In Nigeria: Analysis Of The First Three Quarters Of 2020," Oradea Journal of Business and Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 51-61, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ora:jrojbe:v:6:y:2021:i:1:p:51-61
    DOI: http://doi.org/10.47535/1991ojbe121
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; exchange rate; COVID-19; Unit root test; VAR-cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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