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Does Trade Openness Reduce Inflation? Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

  • Tahir Mukhtar

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Fatima Jinnah Women’s University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan)

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    One of the more celebrated propositions found in international trade is the case that trade liberalization is associated with declining prices, so that protectionism is inflationary. In line with this view, Romer (1993) postulates the hypothesis that inflation is lower in small and open economies. The objective of this study is to examine Romer’s hypothesis in Pakistan. For this purpose, we have used multivariate cointegration and a vector error correction model. The study covers the period from 1960 to 2007. The empirical findings under the cointegration test show that there is a significant negative long-run relationship between inflation and trade openness, which confirms the existence of Romer’s hypothesis in Pakistan.

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    Article provided by Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics in its journal Lahore Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 (Jul-Dec)
    Pages: 35-50

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    Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:15:y:2010:i:2:p:35-50
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    1. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    2. Sachsida, Adolfo & Carneiro, Francisco Galrao & Loureiro, Paulo R. A., 2003. "Does greater trade openness reduce inflation? Further evidence using panel data techniques," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 315-319, December.
    3. Cristina T. Terra, 1998. "Openness And Inflation: A New Assessment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(2), pages 641-648, May.
    4. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "On the temporal causal relationship between energy consumption, real income, and prices: Some new evidence from Asian-energy dependent NICs Based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correctio," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 417-440, August.
    5. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2007. "Inflation dynamics and trade openness: with an application to South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2007-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 45-78.
    7. William C. Gruben & Darryl McLeod, 2003. "The openness-inflation puzzle revisited," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. C. Bowdler & L. Nunziata, 2007. "Trade Union Density and Inflation Performance: Evidence from OECD Panel Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(293), pages 135-159, 02.
    10. Daniels, Joseph P & Nourzad, Farrokh & Vanhoose, David D, 2005. "Openness, Central Bank Independence, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 371-79, April.
    11. Badinger, Harald, 2009. "Globalization, the output-inflation tradeoff and inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 888-907, November.
    12. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
    13. Batra, Ravi, 2001. "Are Tariffs Inflationary?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 373-82, August.
    14. Mohammad Aslam Chaudhary & Naved Ahmad, 1995. "Money Supply, Deficit, and Inflation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 945-956.
    15. Kim, MinKyoung & Beladi, Hamid, 2005. "Is free trade deflationary?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 343-349, December.
    16. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 1999. "An aggregate import demand function for Bangladesh: a cointegration approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 465-472.
    17. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    18. Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
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