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The Favorite-Longshot Bias in Sequential Parimutuel Betting with Non-Expected Utility Players

  • Frédéric Koessler

    ()

  • Anthony Ziegelmeyer

    ()

  • Marie-Hélène Broihanne

    ()

This paper analyzes a model of sequential parimutuel betting described as a two-horse race with a finite number of noise bettors and a finite number of strategic and symmetrically informed bettors. For generic objective probabilities that the favorite wins the race, a unique subgame perfect equilibrium is characterized. Additionally, two explanations for the favorite-longshot bias---according to which favorites win more often than the market's estimate of their winning chances imply---are offered. It is shown that this robust anomalous empirical regularity might be due to the presence of transaction costs and/or to strategic bettors' subjective attitude to probabilities.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1027387507335
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Theory and Decision.

Volume (Year): 54 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 231-248

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Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:54:y:2003:i:3:p:231-248
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  1. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
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  8. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
  9. Busche, Kelly & Hall, Christopher D, 1988. "An Exception to the Risk Preference Anomaly," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(3), pages 337-46, July.
  10. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  11. Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 1999. "Information Efficiency in Betting Markets: A Survey," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-30, January.
  12. Chris Starmer, 2000. "Developments in Non-expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for a Descriptive Theory of Choice under Risk," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 332-382, June.
  13. Hurley, William & McDonough, Lawrence, 1996. "The favourite-longshot bias in parimutuel betting: A clarification of the explanation that bettors like to bet longshots," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 275-278, September.
  14. Hurley, William & McDonough, Lawrence, 1995. "A Note on the Hayek Hypothesis and the Favorite-Longshot Bias in Parimutuel Betting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(4), pages 949-55, September.
  15. Thaler, Richard H & Ziemba, William T, 1988. "Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 161-74, Spring.
  16. Woodland, Linda M & Woodland, Bill M, 1994. " Market Efficiency and the Favorite-Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 269-79, March.
  17. Watanabe, Takahiro & Nonoyama, Hideyuki & Mori, Masao, 1994. "A Model of a General Parimutuel System: Characterizations and Equilibrium Selection," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 237-60.
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