The Favorite-Longshot Bias in Sequential Parimutuel Betting with Non-Expected Utility Players
This paper analyzes a model of sequential parimutuel betting described as a two-horse race with a finite number of noise bettors and a finite number of strategic and symmetrically informed bettors. For generic objective probabilities that the favorite wins the race, a unique subgame perfect equilibrium is characterized. Additionally, two explanations for the favorite-longshot bias---according to which favorites win more often than the market's estimate of their winning chances imply---are offered. It is shown that this robust anomalous empirical regularity might be due to the presence of transaction costs and/or to strategic bettors' subjective attitude to probabilities.
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