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Loss aversion and mental accounting: the favorite longshot bias in parimutuel betting

Author

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  • Jianying Qiu

    () (Max Planck Institute of Economics Jena, Strategic Interaction Group)

Abstract

Parimutuel betting markets are simplified ï¬ nancial markets, and can thus provide a clearer view of pricing issues which are more complicated elsewhere. Though empirical studies generally conclude that the parimutuel betting markets are surprisingly effcient, it is also found that for horses with lowest odds (favorites), market estimates of winning probabilities are smaller than objective winning probabilities; for horses with highest odds (longshot), the opposite is observed. This phenomenon, called the favorite longshot bias, has many explanations such as risk seeking preference, transaction costs, and non-linear transformation of probabilities into decision weights, etc. This paper combines loss aversion with mental accounting, and provides a new explanation for the favorite longshot bias. We show that the bias exists in the absence of all above mentioned reasons, and the degree of the bias differs depending on the type of the mental accounting process that bettors apply.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianying Qiu, 2007. "Loss aversion and mental accounting: the favorite longshot bias in parimutuel betting," Jena Economic Research Papers 2007-017, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  • Handle: RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2007-017
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frédéric Koessler & Anthony Ziegelmeyer & Marie-Hélène Broihanne, 2003. "The Favorite-Longshot Bias in Sequential Parimutuel Betting with Non-Expected Utility Players," Theory and Decision, Springer, pages 231-248.
    2. Frédéric Koessler & Charles Noussair & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2007. "Information Aggregation and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2005-12, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
    3. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2004. "The Timing of Bets and the Favorite-Longshot Bias," FRU Working Papers 2004/12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit.
    4. Frederic Koessler & Ch. Noussair & A. Ziegelmeyer, 2005. "Individual Behavior and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets," THEMA Working Papers 2005-08, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    loss aversion; mental accounting; parimutuel betting; favorite longshot bias;

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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