Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Role of Market Shares

This paper examines the effects of changing market shares on exchange rate pass-through to US import prices. Based on a static model of imperfect competition, I predict that a country with a larger share of a host’s import market will have lower pass-through than its competitors. Using highly disaggregated data on US imports, I implement rolling regressions to calculate unique quarterly values of pass-through for specific goods from each exporting country. These values are compared across market shares, indicating a general trend of decreasing pass-through for larger shares. Most specifically, as predicted by the model, the country holding the largest share of the market has significantly lower pass-through than its competitors. The negative relationship between pass-through and market share holds across most categories of goods, most notably the larger categories of imports. Lastly, I show the market share effect is stronger following larger fluctuations in the exchange rate, particularly after large dollar appreciations.