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A general equilibrium evaluation of the fiscal costs of trade liberalization in Ukraine

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  • Miriam Frey

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  • Zoryana Olekseyuk

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Abstract

The establishment of an Association Agreement/Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (AA/DCFTA) with the European Union (EU) would be the next significant step towards Ukraine’s deeper integration into the world economy. Despite widely expected additional welfare gains, the signing of the AA/DCFTA at the Third Eastern Partnership summit in November 2013 in Vilnius was suspended by the Ukrainian government due to geopolitical concerns and a severe economic and financial crisis in Ukraine coming along with high external debt and a substantial public budget deficit. This puts the fiscal consequences of Ukraine’s continued liberalization into focus, as transition and developing countries face higher fiscal costs associated with trade integration. Accordingly, this paper contributes to the literature by analyzing the part of the potential EU-Ukraine DCFTA which leads to a loss of tariff revenues, namely the tariff elimination. In particular, we apply a static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the single small open economy of Ukraine and focus on the effects of Ukraine’s unilateral tariff elimination by simulating three scenarios reflecting different means to compensate for the loss of tariff revenues. It turns out to be important to take these costs into consideration while modeling trade liberalization, as the results vary significantly across the scenarios. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Miriam Frey & Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2014. "A general equilibrium evaluation of the fiscal costs of trade liberalization in Ukraine," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 505-540, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:41:y:2014:i:3:p:505-540
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-014-9249-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2015. "The EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and the importance of FDI," EcoMod2015 8391, EcoMod.
    2. Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2016. "Modeling of FDI in business services: Additional effects in case of Ukraine's European integration," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 1010-1043, October.
    3. Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Schürenberg-Frosch, Hannah, 2016. "Are Armington elasticities different across countries and sectors? A European study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 328-342.
    4. Miriam Frey, 2016. "Income Inequality Effects of Ukraine’s Trade Liberalization with the EU. Are there 'two Ukraines'?," EcoMod2016 9664, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ukraine; EU; Trade; Integration; CGE; Public spending; C68; F13; F15; H50; O52;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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