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The EU-Ukraine trade liberalization: How much do the costs of tariff elimination matter?

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  • Miriam Frey
  • Zoryana Olekseyuk

Abstract

The establishment of the currently negotiated Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between EU and Ukraine is the next significant step towards Ukraine’s deeper integration into the world economy, widely expected to result in additional welfare gains. As developing countries face some costs associated with trade liberalization, this paper contributes to the literature by analyzing the effects of the EU-Ukraine FTA taking into account the loss of tariff revenues as well as the changed economic conditions after Ukraine’s accession to the WTO in 2008. In particular, we calculate the effects of a unilateral tariff elimination in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Ukraine simulating three scenarios reflecting different means to compensate for the loss in tariff revenues. It turns out to be important to take these costs into consideration while modeling trade liberalization, as the results vary significantly across the scenarios. In general, we find that tariff elimination has only a small impact on the country’s welfare because of the already strongly reduced tariff rates after Ukraine’s WTO accession. The effects can even be negative if the country tries to refinance the trade liberalization costs by means of tax policy. According to our simulations the most welfare enhancing option would be the provision of financial support by the EU, which is in fact suggested in the latest European Parliament resolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Miriam Frey & Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2013. "The EU-Ukraine trade liberalization: How much do the costs of tariff elimination matter?," FIW Working Paper series 103, FIW.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2013:i:103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rutherford, Thomas F, 1999. "Applied General Equilibrium Modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS Subsystem: An Overview of the Modeling Framework and Syntax," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(1-2), pages 1-46, October.
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    3. Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas Fox & Wiegard, Wolfgang, 2003. "Computable general equilibrium analysis: Opening a black box," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-56, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    4. von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan & Hess, Sebastian & Brummer, Bernhard, 2010. "A preliminary analysis of the impact of a Ukraine-EU free trade agreement on agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5264, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miriam Frey, 2013. "The Effects of the EU-Ukraine FTA: An Inequality Analysis using a CGE-Microsimulation Model for Ukraine," EcoMod2013 5587, EcoMod.
    2. Panagiota MANOLI, 2013. "Political Economy aspects of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4, pages 51-73, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ukraine; EU; Trade; Integration; CGE; Public Spending;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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