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Economic Impact of a Potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Between the European Union and the Commonwealth of the Independent States

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  • Joseph Francois
  • Miriam Manchin

Abstract

We evaluate the effects of potential measures to liberalize trade between the EU and the CIS using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We look At the CIS as an aggregate and we also present results for individual CIS countries Our CGE model takes different underlying industry specific market structures and elasticities into account. Furthermore, the model incorporates estimated non-tariff trade barriers to trade in services. The results are compared to a baseline chich incorporates recent developments in the trade policy environment, i.e. the phase out of ATC, enlargement of the EU and CIS accessions to the WTO. The analysis takes agricultural liberalization, liberalization in industrial tariffs, and liberalization in services trade as well as trade facilitation measures into account. Chile there is important heterogeneity in the impact of FTAs on individual countries, the results indicate that the CIS as a whole would experience a negative income effect if the FTA would be limited only to trade in goods. This implies that the CIS would most likely to benefit from an FTA with the EU if it would incorporate deeper form of integration not being limited to liberalization of tariffs in goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Francois & Miriam Manchin, 2009. "Economic Impact of a Potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Between the European Union and the Commonwealth of the Independent States," CASE Network Reports 0084, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Miriam Frey & Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2014. "A general equilibrium evaluation of the fiscal costs of trade liberalization in Ukraine," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 505-540, August.
    2. Stephan Barisitz & Mahdi Ghodsi & Peter Havlik & Waltraut Urban, 2016. "Monthly Report No. 10/2016," wiiw Monthly Reports 2016-10, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    3. Miriam Frey, 2016. "Income Inequality Effects of Ukraine’s Trade Liberalization with the EU. Are there 'two Ukraines'?," EcoMod2016 9664, EcoMod.
    4. Miriam Frey, 2013. "The Effects of the EU-Ukraine FTA: An Inequality Analysis using a CGE-Microsimulation Model for Ukraine," EcoMod2013 5587, EcoMod.
    5. Olekseyuk, Zoryana, 2015. "The EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and the Importance of FDI," Conference papers 332588, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Miriam Frey & Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2011. "The EU-Ukraine trade liberalization: How much do the costs of tariff elimination matter?," Working Papers 308, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies), revised Feb 2013.
    7. Schürenberg-Frosch, Hannah, 2011. "How to model a child in school? A dynamic macro-simulation study for Tanzania," Conference papers 332068, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2015. "The EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and the importance of FDI," EcoMod2015 8391, EcoMod.
    9. Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2016. "Modeling of FDI in business services: Additional effects in case of Ukraine's European integration," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 1010-1043, October.
    10. D. A. Izotov, 2017. "Liberalization of Russia’s trade with the European Union, BRICS, and Trans-Pacific Partnership countries," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 338-345, May.
    11. Henry Chun Kwok Lei, 2017. "The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) and its impacts on the export efficiency of Hong Kong and Macao," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 141-163, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE; EU-CIS Free Trade Area; Russia; Ukraine; CIS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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