A diffusion model for products with indirect network externalities
This paper develops a new diffusion model that incorporates the indirect network externality. The market with indirect network externalities is characterized by two-way interactive effects between hardware and software products on their demands. Our model incorporates two-way interactions in forecasting the diffusion of hardware products based on a simple but realistic assumption. The new model is parsimonious, easy to estimate, and does not require more data points than the Bass diffusion model. The new diffusion model was applied to forecast sales of DVD players in the United States and in South Korea, and to the sales of Digital TV sets in Australia. When compared to the Bass and NSRL diffusion models, the new model showed better performance in forecasting long-term sales. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joseph Farrell & Garth Saloner, 1985.
"Standardization, Compatibility, and Innovation,"
RAND Journal of Economics,
The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(1), pages 70-83, Spring.
- Joseph Farrell & Garth Saloner, 1984. "Standardization, Compatibility and Innovation," Working papers 345, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Nicholas Economides, 1997. "The Economics of Networks," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 1(0), December.
- Economides, Nicholas, 1996. "The economics of networks," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 673-699, October.
- Nicholas Economides, 1995. "The Economics of Networks," Working Papers 94-24, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics, revised Sep 1995.
- Nicholas Economides, 1997. "The Economics of Networks," Industrial Organization 9701002, EconWPA.
- John A. Norton & Frank M. Bass, 1987. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1069-1086, September.
- David C. Schmittlein & Vijay Mahajan, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 57-78.
- Church, Jeffrey & Gandal, Neil, 1993. "Complementary network externalities and technological adoption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 239-260, June.
- Church, J. & Gandal, N., 1991. "Complementary Network Externalities and Technological Adoption," Papers 5-91, Tel Aviv.
- Frank M. Bass & Trichy V. Krishnan & Dipak C. Jain, 1994. "Why the Bass Model Fits without Decision Variables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(3), pages 203-223.
- Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
- Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1985. "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 424-440, June.
- Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1986. "Technology Adoption in the Presence of Network Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 822-841, August.
- V. Srinivasan & Charlotte H. Mason, 1986. "Technical Note—Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 169-178.
- Sachin Gupta & Dipak C. Jain & Mohanbir S. Sawhney, 1999. "Modeling the Evolution of Markets with Indirect Network Externalities: An Application to Digital Television," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 396-416. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:27:y:2008:i:4:p:357-370. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.