IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v20n042017p417-450.html

Industrial Real Estate Market Dynamics in Singapore: A VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Kim Hin David Ho

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Satyanarain Rengarajan

    (National University of Singapore)

Abstract

The behavioural structure of large and strategic industrial real estate accommodation does not exist in a vacuum. Instead, its fundamental investment values and yields are uniquely affected through the dynamic interaction among exogenous and endogenous forces related to the industrial real estate demand-supply conditions, macroeconomic and institutional polices as well as urban industrial plans. This study aims to understand the dynamic behaviour of the industrial real estate market in Singapore that is slowly transitioning from a capital intensive to knowledge intensive economy. Using data obtained from various sources between 2001Q4-2010Q2 which essentially capture three property cycles, we incorporate a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach to holistically model the industrial real estate market in Singapore with respect to its demand-supply conditions, market capitalization rates which encompass information about rental yields, capital values along with future expectations. This study will help policy makers and developers to understand the structure of the industrial real estate market in Singapore along with respect to its macroeconomic conditions. The results are insightful as the data capture both the public and private markets along with a new hi-tech industrial accommodation (science parks), which is slowly gaining prominence as of the turn at the 21st century as Singapore strives to steer towards a knowledge based industrial economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim Hin David Ho & Satyanarain Rengarajan, 2017. "Industrial Real Estate Market Dynamics in Singapore: A VAR Approach," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(4), pages 417-450.
    • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:20:n:04:2017:p:417-450
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gssinst.org/irer/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/v20n4-industrial-real-estate-market-dynamics-in-singapore.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Benjamin & G. Donald Jud & Daniel T. Winkler, 1998. "A Simultaneous Model and Empirical Test of the Demand and Supply of Retail Space," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14.
    2. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1990. "An Investment Model of the Demand and Supply For Industrial Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 530-547, December.
    3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    5. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    6. Quigley, John M., 2002. "Transactions Costs and Housing Markets," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt6pz8p6zt, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    7. S Tsolacos & G Keogh & T McGough, 1998. "Modelling Use, Investment, and Development in the British Office Market," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 30(8), pages 1409-1427, August.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    9. Abeysinghe, Tilak & Jayawickrama, Ananda, 2008. "Singapore's recurrent budget surplus: The role of conservative growth forecasts," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 117-124, April.
    10. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1.
    11. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    12. Patric H. Hendershott & Colin M. Lizieri & George A. Matysiak, 1999. "The Workings of the London Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 365-387, June.
    13. Hall, S G, 1986. "An Application of the Granger & Engle Two-Step Estimation Procedure to United Kingdom Aggregate Wage Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 229-239, August.
    14. Bryan D. Macgregor & Patric H. Hendershott, 2002. "Modelling Real Esate Capitalisation Rates Using an Error Correction Model," ERES eres2002_194, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    15. Alexandra Krystalogianni & George Matysiak & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2004. "Forecasting UK commercial real estate cycle phases with leading indicators: a probit approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(20), pages 2347-2356.
    16. Case, Karl E. & Mayer, Christopher J., 1996. "Housing price dynamics within a metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 387-407, June.
    17. Brent W. Ambrose, 1990. "An Analysis of the Factors Affecting Light Industrial Property Valuation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(3), pages 355-370.
    18. Robert Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2000. "Projections in the Industrial Property Market using a Simultaneous Equation System," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 165-188, January.
    19. Alexandra Krystaloyianni & George Matysiak & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2004. "Forecasting UK Real Estate Cycle Phases With Leading Indicators: A Probit Approach," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2004-15, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    20. William L. Attebery & Ronald C. Rutherford & Mark E. Eakin, 1993. "Industrial Real Estate Prices and Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 377-386.
    21. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    22. Chris Brooks & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2000. "Forecasting Models of Retail Rents," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 32(10), pages 1825-1839, October.
    23. John L. Kling & Thomas E. McCue, 1991. "Stylized Facts About Industrial Property Construction," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 6(3), pages 293-304.
    24. Peijie Wang & Colin Lizieri & George Matysiak, 1997. "Information asymmetry, long-run relationship and price discovery in property investment markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 261-275.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 97-111.
    2. Robert Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2000. "Projections in the Industrial Property Market using a Simultaneous Equation System," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 165-188, January.
    3. Alessio Moneta, 2005. "Causality in macroeconometrics: some considerations about reductionism and realism," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 433-453.
    4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1423 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    6. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission through the consumption-wealth channel," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 117-133.
    7. Jérôme Creel & Paola Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2005. "Discretionary Policy Interactions and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A SVAR Analysis on French Data," Working Papers hal-03597711, HAL.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1423 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Lima, Elcyon Caiado & Maka, Alexis & Céspedes, Brisne, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Level of Economic Activity in Brazil After the Real Plan: Stylized Facts from SVAR Models," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 62(2), October.
    10. Goto, Shingo, 2000. "The Fed's Effect on Excess Returns and Inflation is Much Bigger Than You Think," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt04f1z5hb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    11. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma, 2002. "A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/26, New Zealand Treasury.
    12. Defina, Robert H. & Stark, Thomas C. & Taylor, Herbert E., 1996. "The long-run variance of output and inflation under alternative monetary policy rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 235-251.
    13. Duo Qin, 2006. "VAR Modelling Approach and Cowles Commission Heritage," Working Papers 557, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    14. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2013. "L’apport de la représentation VAR de Christopher A. Sims à la science économique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 309-319.
    15. Paul Lau, Sau-Him, 2000. "On the validity and identification of long-run restrictions for a cointegrated system," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 485-496, December.
    16. Dermot Hodson, 2003. "The Exchange Rate as an Adjustment Mechanism - A Structural VAR Approach to the Case of Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 151-172.
    17. Tito Belchior Silva Moreira & Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Mario Jorge Mendonça & Adolfo Sachsida, 2016. "An Evaluation of the Non-Neutrality of Money," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, March.
    18. Kyungho Jang, 2008. "A Structural Vector Error Correction Model with Short-run and Long-run Restrictions," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 24, pages 199-232.
    19. N. Nergiz Dincer & Pinar Yasar, 2015. "Identification of Current Account Deficit: The Case of Turkey," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 63-87, March.
    20. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    21. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:4:a:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 1998. "Monetary policy and the term structure of nominal interest rates: Evidence and theory," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 53-111, December.
    23. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:20:n:04:2017:p:417-450. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.gssinst.org/gssinst/index.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.