Singapore’s Recurrent Budget Surplus The Role of Conservative Growth Forecasts
Aided by strong economic growth the Singapore government has been able to keep both the tax rate and the government expenditure rate low and yet generate healthy budget surpluses year after year. Although the gap between the tax rate and the government expenditure rate is the obvious source of the surplus, this paper shows the presence of another subtle source, a surplus generated by conservative growth forecasts that lay the base for revenue projections. An omitted variable bias in a model based on the tax smoothing hypothesis led us to consider the role played by the growth forecast error in predicting the budget surplus. Our computations show that on average the underprediction of the tax base (GDP) must have contributed about $376 million per year to the realized budget surplus over the period 1990-2005. This appears to be simply a byproduct of the Government’s philosophy of “fiscal prudence”.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/scape/index.html|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olekalns, N., 1996.
"Australian Evidence on Tax Smoothing and the Optimal Budget Surplus,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
538, The University of Melbourne.
- Olekalns, Nilss, 1997. "Australian Evidence on Tax Smoothing and the Optimal Budget Surplus," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(222), pages 248-57, September.
- Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "Intertemporal Tax-Smoothing and the Government Budget Surplus: Canada and the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1033-45, November.
- Huang, Chao-Hsi & Lin, Kenneth S., 1993. "Deficits, government expenditures, and tax smoothing in the United States: 1929-1988," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 317-339, June.
- Barro, Robert J., 1979.
"On the Determination of the Public Debt,"
3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Serletis, Apostolos & Schorn, Richard G, 1999. "International Evidence on the Tax- and Revenue-Smoothing Hypotheses," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 387-96, April.
- Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August.
- Cashin, Paul & Ul Haque, Nadeem & Olekalns, Nilss, 2003. "Tax smoothing, tax tilting and fiscal sustainability in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 47-67, January.
- Barro, Robert J, 1986. " U.S. Deficits since World War I," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 195-22.
- Robert J. Barro, 1981. "On the Predictability of Tax-Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 0636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sca:scaewp:0704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.