IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gta/jnlgea/v5y2020i1p273-345.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling Trade and Other Economic Interactions Between Countries in Baseline Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Eddy Bekkers
  • Alessandro Antimiani
  • Caitlyn Carrico
  • Dorothee Flaig
  • Lionel Fontagne
  • Jean Foure
  • Joseph Francois
  • Ken Itakura
  • Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova
  • William Powers
  • Bert Saveyn
  • Robert Teh
  • Frank Van Tongeren
  • Marinos Tsigas

Abstract

This paper examines the way trade and other economic interactions between countries are modelled in the construction of baseline projections with recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Simulations are conducted on the size of trade elasticities, the way the trade balance is modelled (macroeconomic closure), trade growth, and energy prices. Other topics scrutinized are the modelling of zeros, modelling of new technologies and new types of trade policies (trade in data and digitalization), phasing in of future trade policies, and migration and remittances. We conclude that there is relative consensus about the use of nested Armington preferences, whereas different scholars model the trade balance very differently. The discrepancy between baseline trade growth and historical trade growth is not considered in most models though highly relevant. Research efforts, both in terms of modelling and data collection, should be allocated to a better coverage of other items on the current account (capital income, remittances) and the inclusion of net foreign debt and asset positions, projecting trade growth based on historical patterns, and better tools to model the rapidly growing digital economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Eddy Bekkers & Alessandro Antimiani & Caitlyn Carrico & Dorothee Flaig & Lionel Fontagne & Jean Foure & Joseph Francois & Ken Itakura & Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova & William Powers & Bert Saveyn & Robe, 2020. "Modelling Trade and Other Economic Interactions Between Countries in Baseline Projections," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 273-345, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:gta:jnlgea:v:5:y:2020:i:1:p:273-345
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.050107AF
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://jgea.org/resources/jgea/ojs/index.php/jgea/article/view/90/103
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wunderlich, A.C. & Kohler, A., 2018. "Using empirical Armington and demand elasticities in computable equilibrium models: An illustration with the CAPRI model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 70-80.
    2. Fontagné, Lionel & Martin, Philippe & Orefice, Gianluca, 2018. "The international elasticity puzzle is worse than you think," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 115-129.
    3. Keith Head & John Ries, 2001. "Increasing Returns versus National Product Differentiation as an Explanation for the Pattern of U.S.-Canada Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 858-876, September.
    4. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lionel Fontagné & Houssein Guimbard & Gianluca Orefice, 2019. "Product-Level Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 2019-17, CEPII research center.
    2. Jung, Benjamin & Felbermayr, Gabriel, 2015. "Market Size Effects in New New Trade Theory," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113038, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Jan Pokrivcak, 2008. "Comparative Advantages, Transaction Costs and Factor Content of Agricultural Trade: Empirical Evidence from the CEE," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2008_03, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    4. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2010. "Optimal Tariffs: Should Australia Cut Automotive Tariffs Unilaterally?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 143-161, June.
    5. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    6. Sergey Kichko, 0. "Competition, land prices and city size," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1313-1329.
    7. Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "Aggregation and the Gravity Equation," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 450-455, May.
    8. Marc Badia†Miró & Anna Carreras†Marín & Christopher M. Meissner, 2018. "Geography, policy, or productivity? Regional trade in five South American countries, 1910–50," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(1), pages 236-266, February.
    9. Ferdinando Monte & Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2018. "Commuting, Migration, and Local Employment Elasticities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3855-3890, December.
    10. Stephen J. Redding, 2010. "The Empirics Of New Economic Geography," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 297-311, February.
    11. Fontagné, Lionel & Martin, Philippe & Orefice, Gianluca, 2018. "The international elasticity puzzle is worse than you think," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 115-129.
    12. Michalski, Tomasz & Ors, Evren, 2012. "(Interstate) Banking and (interstate) trade: Does real integration follow financial integration?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 89-117.
    13. Hanwei Huang & Jiandong Ju & Vivian Z. Yue, 2017. "Structural Adjustments and International Trade: Theory and Evidence from China," CEP Discussion Papers dp1508, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Redding, Stephen J., 2016. "Goods trade, factor mobility and welfare," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 148-167.
    15. David Hummels & Peter J. Klenow, 2002. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Trade," NBER Working Papers 8712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis, 2012. "On the measurement of trade costs: direct vs. indirect approaches to quantifying standards and technical regulations," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 401-414, July.
    18. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2018. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment," 2018 Meeting Papers 890, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Maria Cipollina & Luca De Benedictis & Luca Salvatici & Claudio Vicarelli, 2016. "Policy Measurement And Multilateral Resistance In Gravity Models," Working Papers LuissLab 16130, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    20. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gta:jnlgea:v:5:y:2020:i:1:p:273-345. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jeremy Douglas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.