A Dynamic Evolution and Spatiotemporal Convergence Analysis of the Coordinated Development Between New Quality Productive Forces and China’s Carbon Total Factor Productivity

The core hallmark of new quality productive forces (NQPFs) is a substantial increase in total factor productivity. Developing NQPFs tailored to local conditions significantly promote green, low-carbon, and environmentally sustainable development. This paper selects 30 provinces and municipalities in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet) as research samples. It employs the super-efficiency Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) model, coupling coordination degree analysis, kernel density estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient, and β-convergence analysis to measure and analyze the coupling coordination degree between NQPFs and carbon total factor productivity (CTFP). The results indicate that CTFP exhibits an upward trend overall. At the same time, the NQPFs show an initial increase, followed by a decline, with significant regional variations observed in both. There is notable regional heterogeneity in the coupling coordination degree between NQPFs and CTFP. The eastern region demonstrates the highest coupling coordination degree, followed by the central, western, and northeastern regions. The primary cause of this differential distribution is inter-regional disparities, particularly widening the gap between the eastern region and others. Further analysis reveals that, except for the eastern region, the dynamic evolution trend of coupling coordination nationwide and in other regions tends to converge. Regarding absolute β-convergence, the northeastern region converges the fastest, while the western region converges the slowest. Regarding conditional β-convergence, the convergence speeds in the central, western, and northeastern regions are consistent, but the convergence results remain unchanged. This study provides important theoretical support for achieving a balanced development of NQPFs and comprehensively enhancing CTFP, ensuring significant contributions to the sustainable development of a low-carbon economy.