The Impact of Climate Risk on Agricultural New Quality Productive Forces—Evidence from Panel Data of 31 Provinces in China

Agricultural new quality productive forces are an important driving force for the transformation of China’s agricultural economy and the realization of sustainable development. This study proposes a novel channel to verify the negative effects of climate risk on agricultural new quality productive forces based on the empirical evidence of 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022. Specifically, baseline regression results indicate that a 10% increase in climate risk leads to a 1.18% decrease in agricultural new quality productive forces. Moreover, mechanism tests indicate that climate risk negatively affects agricultural new quality productive forces mainly through increasing the severity of natural disasters. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that variances in agricultural digital economy levels, government investment in environmental protections, and the depth of agricultural insurance coverage endowments result in substantial discrepancies in the effects of climate risk on agricultural new quality productive forces. Finally, this study finds that the impact of climate risk varies across provinces with different regional locations and geographical conditions. This study provides useful insights for coping with climate risk and promoting the high-quality development of agricultural new quality productive forces.