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System Dynamics Analysis of the Relationship between Transit Metropolis Construction and Sustainable Development of Urban Transportation—Case Study of Nanchang City, China

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  • Yunqiang Xue

    (College of Transportation and Logistics, East China JiaoTong University, Nanchang 330013, China
    School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
    High-Speed Rail and Regional Development Research Center of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Lin Cheng

    (School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China)

  • Kuang Wang

    (College of Transportation and Logistics, East China JiaoTong University, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Jing An

    (College of Transportation and Logistics, East China JiaoTong University, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Hongzhi Guan

    (College of Transportation and Logistics, East China JiaoTong University, Nanchang 330013, China
    College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

Abstract

In order to systematically analyze the benefits of transit metropolis construction, the system dynamics (SD) theory was used to construct the transit metropolis SD simulation model from the four subsystems of economy, society, environment, and transportation supply and demand. The validity of the SD model was verified by the social and economic data of Nanchang City and the operational data of the bus company, and the quantitative simulation analysis was carried out by taking the construction of the transit metropolis in Nanchang as an example. The simulation results show that, in 2020, the number of motor vehicles in Nanchang will reach 1.13 million and the urban population will reach 5.71 million. It is necessary to build a transit metropolis for the sustainable development of urban transportation. In order to complete the transit metropolis creation goal of 60% of the public transit mobility sharing rate, the proportion of public transport investment in the total transportation investment needs to be adjusted from 0.25 to 0.35. As a result, Nanchang City will improve after the peak traffic congestion in 2022, indicating that the construction of the transit metropolis will have a positive effect on Nanchang. By developing new energy vehicles and low-emission vehicles, vehicle emissions will drop from 0.05 tons/year to 0.04 tons/year, and overall nitrogen oxide emissions will fall by 70%, which is significant for urban environments. The research results provide theoretical support for the significance of transit metropolis construction, and promote the sustainable development of urban transportation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunqiang Xue & Lin Cheng & Kuang Wang & Jing An & Hongzhi Guan, 2020. "System Dynamics Analysis of the Relationship between Transit Metropolis Construction and Sustainable Development of Urban Transportation—Case Study of Nanchang City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:7:p:3028-:d:343557
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Debalke, Negash Mulatu, 2023. "The Role of Electric Vehicles in Road Transport Decarbonization: Exploring Environmental Impacts and Policy Implications through a Systematic Literature Review of System Dynamics Approaches," MPRA Paper 118596, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2023.
    2. Elham Heidari & Sona Bikdeli & Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar, 2023. "A dynamic model for CO2 emissions induced by urban transportation during 2005–2030, a case study of Mashhad, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 4217-4236, May.
    3. Yunqiang Xue & Lin Cheng & Meng Zhong & Xiaokang Sun, 2023. "Evaluation of Bus Lane Layouts Based on a Bi-Level Programming Model—Using Part of the Qingshan Lake District of Nanchang City, China, as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-13, May.

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