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Temporal Instability of Motorcycle Crash Fatalities on Local Roadways: A Random Parameters Approach with Heterogeneity in Means and Variances

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  • Thanapong Champahom

    (Department of Management, Faculty of Business Administration, Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand)

  • Chamroeun Se

    (School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand)

  • Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao

    (School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand)

  • Tassana Boonyoo

    (Traffic and Transport Development and Research Center (TDRC), King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok 10140, Thailand)

  • Amphaphorn Leelamanothum

    (Department of Management, Faculty of Business Administration, Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand)

  • Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha

    (School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand)

Abstract

Motorcycle accidents can impede sustainable development due to the high fatality rate associated with motorcycle riders, particularly in developing countries. Although there has been extensive research conducted on motorcycle accidents on highways, there is a limited understanding of the factors contributing to accidents involving the most commonly used motorcycles on local roads. This study aimed to identify the root causes of fatal motorcycle accidents on local roads. The contributing factors consist of four groups: rider characteristics, maneuvers prior to the crash, temporal and environmental characteristics, and road characteristics. The study employed random parameters logit models with unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances while also incorporating the temporal instability principle. The results revealed that the data related to motorcycle accidents on local roads between 2018 and 2020 exhibited temporal variation. Numerous variables were discovered to influence the means and variances of the unobserved factors that were identified as random parameters. Male riders, riders over 50 years old, foreign riders, and accidents that occurred at night with inadequate lighting were identified as the primary factors that increased the risk of fatalities. This paper presents a clear policy recommendation aimed at organizations and identifies the relevant stakeholders, including the Department of Land Transport, traffic police, local government organizations, and academic groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Thanapong Champahom & Chamroeun Se & Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao & Tassana Boonyoo & Amphaphorn Leelamanothum & Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha, 2023. "Temporal Instability of Motorcycle Crash Fatalities on Local Roadways: A Random Parameters Approach with Heterogeneity in Means and Variances," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-28, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:5:p:3845-:d:1076017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amjad Pervez & Jaeyoung Lee & Helai Huang & Xiaoqi Zhai, 2022. "What Factors Would Make Single-Vehicle Motorcycle Crashes Fatal? Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-14, May.
    2. Bhat, Chandra R., 2001. "Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 677-693, August.
    3. Thanapong Champahom & Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao & Chinnakrit Banyong & Watanya Nambulee & Ampol Karoonsoontawong & Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha, 2021. "Analysis of Crash Frequency and Crash Severity in Thailand: Hierarchical Structure Models Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Ratanavaraha, Vatanavongs & Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj, 2013. "Community participation and behavioral changes of helmet use in Thailand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 111-118.
    5. Ming-Heng Wang, 2022. "Investigating the Difference in Factors Contributing to the Likelihood of Motorcyclist Fatalities in Single Motorcycle and Multiple Vehicle Crashes," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-22, July.
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