IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v17y2020i21p7840-d434956.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Identification of Precursor Regulation Impact on the Methamphetamine Market and Public Health Indicators in the Czech Republic: Time Series Structural Break Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Petruželka

    (Department of Addictology, First Faculty of Medicine, Charles University and General University Hospital, 128 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Miroslav Barták

    (Department of Addictology, First Faculty of Medicine, Charles University and General University Hospital, 128 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

Abstract

Background: This study provides insight into the impact of methamphetamine precursor regulation, which is considered to be one of the most important tools of supply reduction and a tool with potential public health impact. Methods: It is based on a longitudinal and quasi-experimental design and it investigates the changes of methamphetamine precursor regulation in Czech Republic, which is treated as a natural experiment. The statistical analysis uses features from the generalized fluctuation test framework as well as from the F test framework to estimate structural changes in the methamphetamine-related arrests and nonfatal intoxications time series. Results: The analysis identified structural breaks in the majority of the methamphetamine drug market-related time series in the period related to the tightening of regulation. The results of this study show that methamphetamine precursor regulation was associated with the proliferation of international and organized crime groups and with no change in the overall number of arrests and nonfatal intoxications. Conclusions: The precursor regulation ceteris paribus plausibly leads to the change in drug supply towards more organized groups and to an increasing involvement of foreign nationals at the drug market and is not effective in suppressing the methamphetamine market and in reducing the public health indicator of nonfatal methamphetamine intoxications.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Petruželka & Miroslav Barták, 2020. "The Identification of Precursor Regulation Impact on the Methamphetamine Market and Public Health Indicators in the Czech Republic: Time Series Structural Break Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-28, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:21:p:7840-:d:434956
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/21/7840/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/21/7840/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dobkin, Carlos & Nicosia, Nancy & Weinberg, Matthew, 2014. "Are supply-side drug control efforts effective? Evaluating OTC regulations targeting methamphetamine precursors," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 48-61.
    2. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Kramer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2003. "Testing and dating of structural changes in practice," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 109-123, October.
    3. Carlos Dobkin & Nancy Nicosia, 2009. "The War on Drugs: Methamphetamine, Public Health, and Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 324-349, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lindo, Jason M. & Padilla-Romo, María, 2018. "Kingpin approaches to fighting crime and community violence: Evidence from Mexico's drug war," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 253-268.
    2. d'Este, Rocco, 2022. "Scientific Advancements in Illegal Drugs Production and Institutional Responses: New Psychoactive Substances, Self-Harm, and Violence inside Prisons," IZA Discussion Papers 15248, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Bondurant, Samuel R. & Lindo, Jason M. & Swensen, Isaac D., 2018. "Substance abuse treatment centers and local crime," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 124-133.
    4. Hansen, Benjamin & Miller, Keaton & Weber, Caroline, 2020. "Federalism, partial prohibition, and cross-border sales: Evidence from recreational marijuana," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. Rocco d'Este, 2021. "Breaking the Crystal Methamphetamine Economy: Illegal Drugs, Supply‐side Interventions and Crime Responses," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 208-233, January.
    6. Simone Balestra & Helge Liebert & Nicole Maestas & Tisamarie B. Sherry, 2021. "Behavioral Responses to Supply-Side Drug Policy During the Opioid Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 29596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jose Fernandez & Stephan Gohmann & Joshua C. Pinkston, 2018. "Breaking Bad in Bourbon Country: Does Alcohol Prohibition Encourage Methamphetamine Production?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(4), pages 1001-1023, April.
    8. Abby Alpert & David Powell & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, 2018. "Supply-Side Drug Policy in the Presence of Substitutes: Evidence from the Introduction of Abuse-Deterrent Opioids," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 1-35, November.
    9. Scott Cunningham & Keith Finlay, 2016. "Identifying Demand Responses to Illegal Drug Supply Interdictions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(10), pages 1268-1290, October.
    10. Diego Zambiasi, 2020. "Drugs on the Web, Crime in the Streets. The impact of Dark Web marketplaces on street crime," Working Papers 202009, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    11. Zambiasi, Diego, 2022. "Drugs on the Web, Crime in the Streets. The Impact of Shutdowns of Dark Net Marketplaces on Street Crime," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 274-306.
    12. Deiana Claudio & Giua Ludovica, 2021. "The Intended and Unintended Effects of Opioid Policies on Prescription Opioids and Crime," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 751-792, April.
    13. Luis Aguiar & Jörg Claussen & Christian Peukert, 2018. "Catch Me If You Can: Effectiveness and Consequences of Online Copyright Enforcement," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 29(3), pages 656-678, September.
    14. Matthias Parey & Imran Rasul, 2021. "Measuring the Market Size for Cannabis: A New Approach Using Forensic Economics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(350), pages 297-338, April.
    15. Chang, Bi-Juan & Hung, Mao-Wei, 2021. "Corporate debt and cash decisions: A nonlinear panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 15-37.
    16. Yonglin Shen & Xiuguo Liu, 2015. "Phenological Changes of Corn and Soybeans over U.S. by Bayesian Change-Point Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-23, May.
    17. Guo, Zhichao & Feng, Yuanhua & Tan, Xiangyong, 2011. "Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China–Germany trade in agri-food products," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2359-2368.
    18. Grinis, Inna, 2017. "Trend growth durations & shifts," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85126, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Fan, Ying & Xu, Jin-Hua, 2011. "What has driven oil prices since 2000? A structural change perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1082-1094.
    20. Zaldívar, José-Manuel & Strozzi, Fernanda & Dueri, Sibylle & Marinov, Dimitar & Zbilut, Joseph P., 2008. "Characterization of regime shifts in environmental time series with recurrence quantification analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 58-70.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:21:p:7840-:d:434956. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.