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Scenario-Based Analysis of the Impact of the Electrification of the Delivery Fleet on the Sustainability of E-Commerce—Forecast Until 2050

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  • Mariusz Pyra

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, John Paul II University in Biala Podlaska, 21-500 Biala Podlaska, Poland)

Abstract

This study analyzes the potential impact of the electrification of the delivery fleet on sustainability in the e-commerce sector, forecasting trends up to 2050. Scenario analysis, forecast models, and Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to evaluate the following three scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), partial electrification, and full electrification. This study focuses on reducing CO 2 emissions, optimizing operating costs, and delivery time efficiency. The results indicate that full electrification can reduce CO 2 emissions by more than 75% and operating costs by around 30% by 2050, while improving delivery time by around 15%. Partial electrification shows moderate benefits, with a reduction in CO 2 emissions of around 50% and cost savings of 15%. This study emphasizes the significant potential of fleet electrification in solving environmental problems and increasing operational efficiency in e-commerce logistics, while identifying challenges in implementation and areas for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariusz Pyra, 2025. "Scenario-Based Analysis of the Impact of the Electrification of the Delivery Fleet on the Sustainability of E-Commerce—Forecast Until 2050," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:6:p:1503-:d:1614874
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mariusz Pyra & Izolda Skruibyte & Jurgita Kaspariene, 2024. "Development of the Polish E-Commerce Market in Comparison to Selected EU Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 571-583.
    2. Richardson, David B., 2013. "Electric vehicles and the electric grid: A review of modeling approaches, Impacts, and renewable energy integration," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 247-254.
    3. Efraim Turban & Jon Outland & David King & Jae Kyu Lee & Ting-Peng Liang & Deborrah C. Turban, 2018. "Electronic Commerce 2018," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 9, number 978-3-319-58715-8, December.
    4. McCollum, David & Yang, Christopher, 2009. "Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5580-5596, December.
    5. Sperling, Daniel & Gordon, Deborah, 2009. "Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195376647, Decembrie.
    6. Dablanc, Laetitia, 2007. "Goods transport in large European cities: Difficult to organize, difficult to modernize," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 280-285, March.
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