IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i23p7871-d686421.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Long Will Combustion Vehicles Be Used? Polish Transport Sector on the Pathway to Climate Neutrality

Author

Listed:
  • Wojciech Rabiega

    (National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Chmielna 132/134, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Artur Gorzałczyński

    (National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Chmielna 132/134, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Robert Jeszke

    (National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Chmielna 132/134, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Paweł Mzyk

    (National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Chmielna 132/134, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Krystian Szczepański

    (Institute of Environmental Protection—National Research Institute (IEP-NRI), Krucza 5/11D, 00-548 Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

Transformation of road transport sector through replacing of internal combustion vehicles with zero-emission technologies is among key challenges to achievement of climate neutrality by 2050. In a constantly developing economy, the demand for transport services increases to ensure continuity in the supply chain and passenger mobility. Deployment of electric technologies in the road transport sector involves both businesses and households, its pace depends on the technological development of zero-emission vehicles, presence of necessary infrastructure and regulations on emission standards for new vehicles entering the market. Thus, this study attempts to estimate how long combustion vehicles will be in use and what the state of the fleet will be in 2050. For obtainment of results the TR 3 E partial equilibrium model was used. The study simulates the future fleet structure in passenger and freight transport. The results obtained for Poland for the climate neutrality (NEU) scenario show that in 2050 the share of vehicles using fossil fuels will be ca. 30% in both road passenger and freight transport. The consequence of shifts in the structure of the fleet is the reduction of CO 2 emissions ca. 80% by 2050 and increase of the transport demand for electricity and hydrogen.

Suggested Citation

  • Wojciech Rabiega & Artur Gorzałczyński & Robert Jeszke & Paweł Mzyk & Krystian Szczepański, 2021. "How Long Will Combustion Vehicles Be Used? Polish Transport Sector on the Pathway to Climate Neutrality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-19, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:23:p:7871-:d:686421
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/23/7871/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/23/7871/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, B.W., 2015. "LMDI decomposition approach: A guide for implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 233-238.
    2. Zheng, Jihu & Zhou, Yan & Yu, Rujie & Zhao, Dongchang & Lu, Zifeng & Zhang, Peng, 2019. "Survival rate of China passenger vehicles: A data-driven approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 587-597.
    3. Lund, Henrik & Kempton, Willett, 2008. "Integration of renewable energy into the transport and electricity sectors through V2G," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3578-3587, September.
    4. Azusa OKAGAWA & Kanemi BAN, 2008. "Estimation of substitution elasticities for CGE models," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 08-16, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    5. Jelica, D. & Taljegard, M. & Thorson, L. & Johnsson, F., 2018. "Hourly electricity demand from an electric road system – A Swedish case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 141-148.
    6. Bartolozzi, I. & Rizzi, F. & Frey, M., 2013. "Comparison between hydrogen and electric vehicles by life cycle assessment: A case study in Tuscany, Italy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 103-111.
    7. Mohit Goswami & Arijit De & Muhammad Khoirul Khakim Habibi & Yash Daultani, 2020. "Examining freight performance of third-party logistics providers within the automotive industry in India: an environmental sustainability perspective," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(24), pages 7565-7592, December.
    8. Mehdi Jahangir Samet & Heikki Liimatainen & Oscar Patrick René van Vliet & Markus Pöllänen, 2021. "Road Freight Transport Electrification Potential by Using Battery Electric Trucks in Finland and Switzerland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-22, February.
    9. Siskos, Pelopidas & Moysoglou, Yannis, 2019. "Assessing the impacts of setting CO2 emission targets on truck manufacturers: A model implementation and application for the EU," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 123-138.
    10. Marta Borowska-Stefańska & Michał Kowalski & Paulina Kurzyk & Miroslava Mikušová & Szymon Wiśniewski, 2021. "Privileging Electric Vehicles as an Element of Promoting Sustainable Urban Mobility—Effects on the Local Transport System in a Large Metropolis in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-24, June.
    11. Barton, John & Huang, Sikai & Infield, David & Leach, Matthew & Ogunkunle, Damiete & Torriti, Jacopo & Thomson, Murray, 2013. "The evolution of electricity demand and the role for demand side participation, in buildings and transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 85-102.
    12. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    13. KERAMIDAS Kimon & FOSSE Florian & DIAZ VAZQUEZ Ana & SCHADE Burkhard & TCHUNG-MING Stephane & WEITZEL Matthias & VANDYCK Toon & WOJTOWICZ Krzysztof, 2021. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2020: A New Normal Beyond Covid-19," JRC Research Reports JRC123203, Joint Research Centre.
    14. Talbi, Besma, 2017. "CO2 emissions reduction in road transport sector in Tunisia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 232-238.
    15. Ankita Ray & Arijit De & Sandeep Mondal & Junwei Wang, 2021. "Selection of best buyback strategy for original equipment manufacturer and independent remanufacturer – game theoretic approach," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(18), pages 5495-5524, September.
    16. Leonidas Mantzos & Tobias Wiesenthal & Frederik Neuwahl & Mate Rozsai, 2019. "The POTEnCIA Central scenario: An EU energy outlook to 2050," JRC Research Reports JRC118353, Joint Research Centre.
    17. Mikołaj Schmidt & Paweł Zmuda-Trzebiatowski & Marcin Kiciński & Piotr Sawicki & Konrad Lasak, 2021. "Multiple-Criteria-Based Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Design Problem," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-34, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ján Horváth & Janka Szemesová, 2023. "Is a Carbon-Neutral Pathway in Road Transport Possible? A Case Study from Slovakia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-18, August.
    2. Andri Ottesen & Sumayya Banna & Basil Alzougool, 2023. "Women Will Drive the Demand for EVs in the Middle East over the Next 10 Years—Lessons from Today’s Kuwait and 1960s USA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-24, April.
    3. Rafael Estevez & Laura Aguado-Deblas & Francisco J. López-Tenllado & Felipa M. Bautista & Antonio A. Romero & Diego Luna, 2024. "Internal Combustion Engines and Carbon-Neutral Fuels: A Perspective on Emission Neutrality in the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-13, March.
    4. Anton Manakhov & Maxim Orlov & Mustafa Babiker & Abdulaziz S. Al-Qasim, 2022. "A Perspective on Decarbonizing Mobility: An All-Electrification vs. an All-Hydrogenization Venue," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-13, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Hao & Zhao, Yuhuan & Qiao, Xiaoyong & Liu, Ya & Cao, Ye & Li, Yue & Wang, Song & Zhang, Zhonghua & Zhang, Yongfeng & Weng, Jianfeng, 2017. "Identifying the driving forces of national and regional CO2 emissions in China: Based on temporal and spatial decomposition analysis models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 522-538.
    2. Trotta, Gianluca, 2020. "Assessing energy efficiency improvements and related energy security and climate benefits in Finland: An ex post multi-sectoral decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Román-Collado, Rocío & Colinet, María José, 2018. "Are labour productivity and residential living standards drivers of the energy consumption changes?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 746-756.
    4. Ang, B.W. & Goh, Tian, 2019. "Index decomposition analysis for comparing emission scenarios: Applications and challenges," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 74-87.
    5. Fernández-Amador, Octavio & Francois, Joseph F. & Oberdabernig, Doris A. & Tomberger, Patrick, 2023. "Energy footprints and the international trade network: A new dataset. Is the European Union doing it better?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).
    6. Sun, Xiaoqi & Liu, Xiaojia, 2020. "Decomposition analysis of debt’s impact on China’s energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Yang, Xue & Su, Bin, 2019. "Impacts of international export on global and regional carbon intensity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Mousavi, Babak & Lopez, Neil Stephen A. & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel & Chiu, Anthony S.F. & Blesl, Markus, 2017. "Driving forces of Iran's CO2 emissions from energy consumption: An LMDI decomposition approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 804-814.
    9. Isik, Mine & Ari, Izzet & Sarica, Kemal, 2021. "Challenges in the CO2 emissions of the Turkish power sector: Evidence from a two-level decomposition approach," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Raza, Muhammad Yousaf & Lin, Boqiang, 2023. "Future outlook and influencing factors analysis of natural gas consumption in Bangladesh: An economic and policy perspectives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    11. Xiao, Hao & Sun, Ke-Juan & Bi, Hui-Min & Xue, Jin-Jun, 2019. "Changes in carbon intensity globally and in countries: Attribution and decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1492-1504.
    12. Zhang, Chenjun & Wu, Yusi & Yu, Yu, 2020. "Spatial decomposition analysis of water intensity in China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Guang, Fengtao & Wen, Le & Sharp, Basil, 2022. "Energy efficiency improvements and industry transition: An analysis of China's electricity consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    14. Zbigniew Golas, 2020. "The Driving Forces of Change in Energy-related CO2 Emissions in the Polish Iron and Steel Industry in 1990-2017," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 94-102.
    15. Shigetomi, Yosuke & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi & Ogawa, Yuki & Shiraki, Hiroto & Yamamoto, Yuki & Ochi, Yuki & Ehara, Tomoki, 2018. "Driving forces underlying sub-national carbon dioxide emissions within the household sector and implications for the Paris Agreement targets in Japan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2321-2332.
    16. Li, Yonglin & Zuo, Zhili & Cheng, Yue & Cheng, Jinhua & Xu, Deyi, 2023. "Towards a decoupling between regional economic growth and CO2 emissions in China's mining industry: A comprehensive decomposition framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Michiyuki Yagi & Shunsuke Managi, 2018. "Decomposition analysis of corporate carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions in Japan: Integrating corporate environmental and financial performances," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1476-1492, December.
    18. Cansino, José M. & Román-Collado, Rocío & Merchán, José, 2019. "Do Spanish energy efficiency actions trigger JEVON’S paradox?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 760-770.
    19. Banie Naser Outchiri, 2020. "Contributing to better energy and environmental analyses: how accurate are decomposition analysis results?," Cahiers de recherche 20-11, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    20. Huang, Yun-Hsun, 2020. "Examining impact factors of residential electricity consumption in Taiwan using index decomposition analysis based on end-use level data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:23:p:7871-:d:686421. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.