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The POTEnCIA Central scenario: An EU energy outlook to 2050

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Abstract

This report describes the evolution of the EU energy system until the year 2050 under the assumption that no further policies and measures are introduced beyond the end of 2017. The results show that both the energy and the carbon intensity of the European economy remain on a declining path in the 'Central' scenario set-up, but will miss mid-century targets. This evolution is driven by the continued impact of policies that are already in place in combination with technology progress, as well as by structural changes and the development of the prices of fossil fuels and of the CO2 allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. The EU target to reduce GHG emissions by at least 40% from 1990 levels in 2030 will not be met under the assumptions of the scenario, confirming the need for additional policies and measures. The Central scenario was developed with the JRC´s energy model POTEnCIA and serves as reference point to which policy scenarios can be compared. It is the result of a transparent and iterative interactive exercise between the JRC, other Commission services and Member States' national experts within the POTEnCIA modelling framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonidas Mantzos & Tobias Wiesenthal & Frederik Neuwahl & Mate Rozsai, 2019. "The POTEnCIA Central scenario: An EU energy outlook to 2050," JRC Working Papers JRC118353, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
  • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc118353
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC118353
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    1. Leonidas Mantzos & Tobias Wiesenthal & Nicoleta Anca Matei & Stephane Tchung-Ming & Mate Rozsai & Peter Russ & Antonio Soria Ramirez, 2017. "JRC-IDEES: Integrated Database of the European Energy Sector: Methodological note," JRC Working Papers JRC108244, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
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    Cited by:

    1. Schlund, David & Schönfisch, Max, 2021. "Analysing the Impact of a Renewable Hydrogen Quota on the European Electricity and Natural Gas Markets," EWI Working Papers 2021-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    2. Philipp Hauser & David Schönheit & Hendrik Scharf & Carl-Philipp Anke & Dominik Möst, 2021. "Covid-19’s Impact on European Power Sectors: An Econometric Analysis," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 14(6), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Raúl Castaño-Rosa & Roberto Barrella & Carmen Sánchez-Guevara & Ricardo Barbosa & Ioanna Kyprianou & Eleftheria Paschalidou & Nikolaos S. Thomaidis & Dusana Dokupilova & João Pedro Gouveia & József Ká, 2021. "Cooling Degree Models and Future Energy Demand in the Residential Sector. A Seven-Country Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(5), pages 1-25, March.

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    Keywords

    Energy; Modelling; Energy System; Climate; Scenario;
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