Is a Carbon-Neutral Pathway in Road Transport Possible? A Case Study from Slovakia

Transformation of European transport belongs among the key challenges to achieve a reduction of 55% by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050. This study focuses on GHG emissions in road transport in Slovakia, as it currently accounts for 19% of total GHG emissions (road transport emissions account for 99% of transport emissions). The main driver for this study was the preparation of Slovakia’s Climate Act and investigation of where are the limits of greenhouse gas emission reduction by 2050. With the aim of achieving maximum reduction in emissions by 2050 compared to 2005 levels, various scenarios were developed using the COPERT model to explore emission reduction strategies. The scenarios considered different subsectors of road transport, including passenger cars, light-commercial vehicles, heavy-duty vehicles (buses and trucks), and L-category vehicles and examined encompassed reduction of transport demand, improving energy efficiency, and utilizing advanced technologies with alternative fuels (hybrids, PHEV, CNG, LNG or LPG). However, the economic aspects of specific mitigation options were not considered in this analysis. The results show that there is a possibility of 77% GHG emission reduction by 2050 in comparison with the 2005 level. This reduction is accompanied by a shift in vehicle technologies to alternative fuels like electricity, hydrogen, and to a smaller extent biofuels and biomethane. This study shows that it will be possible to achieve 86.7% zero-emission cars and an additional 12.9% low emission and alternative fueled cars by 2050. By identifying and assessing these scenarios, policymakers and stakeholders can gain insights into the possibilities, challenges, and potential solutions for meeting the climate targets set by the European Union’s Fit for 55 climate package.