IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecnmx/v6y2018i2p29-d149744.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Wall’s Impact in the Occupied West Bank: A Bayesian Approach to Poverty Dynamics Using Repeated Cross-Sections

Author

Listed:
  • Tareq Sadeq

    (Department of Economics, Birzeit University, Birzeit, West Bank 627, Palestine
    Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Marseille, AMSE, Ilot Bernard Dubois, 5 Bd Maurice Bourdet, 13001 Marseille, France)

  • Michel Lubrano

    (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Marseille, AMSE, Ilot Bernard Dubois, 5 Bd Maurice Bourdet, 13001 Marseille, France)

Abstract

In 2002, the Israeli government decided to build a wall inside the occupied West Bank. The wall had a marked effect on the access to land and water resources as well as to the Israeli labour market. It is difficult to include the effect of the wall in an econometric model explaining poverty dynamics as the wall was built in the richer region of the West Bank. So a diff-in-diff strategy is needed. Using a Bayesian approach, we treat our two-period repeated cross-section data set as an incomplete data problem, explaining the income-to-needs ratio as a function of time invariant exogenous variables. This allows us to provide inference results on poverty dynamics. We then build a conditional regression model including a wall variable and state dependence to see how the wall modified the initial results on poverty dynamics. We find that the wall has increased the probability of poverty persistence by 58 percentage points and the probability of poverty entry by 18 percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Tareq Sadeq & Michel Lubrano, 2018. "The Wall’s Impact in the Occupied West Bank: A Bayesian Approach to Poverty Dynamics Using Repeated Cross-Sections," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-24, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:29-:d:149744
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/6/2/29/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/6/2/29/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Verbeek, Marno & Vella, Francis, 2005. "Estimating dynamic models from repeated cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 83-102, July.
    2. Lillard, Lee A & Willis, Robert J, 1978. "Dynamic Aspects of Earning Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 985-1012, September.
    3. Aliber, Michael, 2003. "Chronic Poverty in South Africa: Incidence, Causes and Policies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 473-490, March.
    4. Dercon, Stefan, 1998. "Wealth, risk and activity choice: cattle in Western Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 1-42, February.
    5. Jayne, T. S. & Yamano, Takashi & Weber, Michael T. & Tschirley, David & Benfica, Rui & Chapoto, Antony & Zulu, Ballard, 2003. "Smallholder income and land distribution in Africa: implications for poverty reduction strategies," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 253-275, June.
    6. Joan R. Rodgers & John L. Rodgers, 1993. "Chronic Poverty in the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 28(1), pages 25-54.
    7. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
    8. Luc Bauwens & Michel Lubrano, 1998. "Bayesian inference on GARCH models using the Gibbs sampler," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages 23-46.
    9. Michael Carter & Christopher Barrett, 2006. "The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: An asset-based approach," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 178-199.
    10. Patrick Sevestre & Laszlo Matyas, 2008. "The Econometrics of Panel Data," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00279977, HAL.
    11. Scott Atran & Robert Axelrod & Richard Davis, 2007. "Sacred barriers to conflict resolution," Post-Print ijn_00505181, HAL.
    12. Zimmerman, Frederick J. & Carter, Michael R., 2003. "Asset smoothing, consumption smoothing and the reproduction of inequality under risk and subsistence constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 233-260, August.
    13. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling low income transitions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 593-610.
    14. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    15. Nobuhiko Fuwa, 2007. "Pathways out of rural poverty: a case study in socio-economic mobility in the rural Philippines," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(1), pages 123-144, January.
    16. Chris Elbers & Jean O. Lanjouw & Peter Lanjouw, 2003. "Micro--Level Estimation of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 355-364, January.
    17. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F., 2013. "Measuring poverty dynamics with synthetic panels based on cross-sections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6504, The World Bank.
    18. Christine Leuenberger, 2016. "Maps as Politics: Mapping the West Bank Barrier," Journal of Borderlands Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 339-364, July.
    19. Deaton, Angus, 1985. "Panel data from time series of cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 109-126.
    20. Lanjouw, Peter & Ravallion, Martin, 1995. "Poverty and Household Size," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1415-1434, November.
    21. Matthew Longo & Daphna Canetti & Nancy Hite‐Rubin, 2014. "A Checkpoint Effect? Evidence from a Natural Experiment on Travel Restrictions in the West Bank," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(4), pages 1006-1023, October.
    22. Ana María Ibañez & Andrés Moya, 2010. "Do Conflicts Create Poverty Traps? Asset Losses and Recovery for Displaced Households in Colombia," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Crime: Lessons For and From Latin America, pages 137-172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. László Mátyás & Patrick Sevestre (ed.), 2008. "The Econometrics of Panel Data," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75892-1, July-Dece.
    24. Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter & Luoto, Jill & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements into and out of poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 112-128.
    25. Carter, Michael R. & May, Julian, 2001. "One Kind of Freedom: Poverty Dynamics in Post-apartheid South Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 1987-2006, December.
    26. Adnan, Wifag, 2015. "Who gets to cross the border? The impact of mobility restrictions on labor flows in the West Bank," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 86-99.
    27. Dreze, Jean & Srinivasan, P. V., 1997. "Widowhood and poverty in rural India: Some inferences from household survey data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 217-234, December.
    28. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 2000. "Is transient poverty different? Evidence for rural China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 82-99.
    29. Scherr, Sara J., 2000. "A downward spiral? Research evidence on the relationship between poverty and natural resource degradation," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 479-498, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michel Lubrano & Zhou Xun, 2021. "The Bayesian approach to poverty measurement," AMSE Working Papers 2133, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    2. Michel Lubrano & Zhou Xun, 2023. "The Bayesian approach to poverty measurement," Post-Print halshs-04135764, HAL.
    3. Michel Lubrano & Zhou Xun, 2023. "The Bayesian approach to poverty measurement," Post-Print hal-04347292, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolas Hérault & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2019. "How valid are synthetic panel estimates of poverty dynamics?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(1), pages 51-76, March.
    2. Rodrigo Carrillo Valles & Patricia Lopez Rodriguez & Isidro Soloaga, 2020. "Dinamicas de pobreza en Mexico, 2008-2018," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 17(2), pages 7-32, Julio-Dic.
    3. Bigsten, Arne & Shimeles, Abebe, 2008. "Poverty Transition and Persistence in Ethiopia: 1994-2004," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1559-1584, September.
    4. Echevin, Damien, 2011. "Vulnerability and livelihoods before and after the Haiti earthquake," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5850, The World Bank.
    5. Kimberly Bolch & Luis F. Lopez‐Calva & Eduardo Ortiz‐Juarez, 2023. "“When Life Gives You Lemons”: Using Cross‐Sectional Surveys to Identify Chronic Poverty in the Absence of Panel Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(2), pages 474-503, June.
    6. Sommarat Chantarat & Christopher Barrett, 2012. "Social network capital, economic mobility and poverty traps," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 10(3), pages 299-342, September.
    7. Christopher B. Barrett, 2005. "Rural poverty dynamics: development policy implications," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(s1), pages 45-60, January.
    8. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F., 2013. "Measuring poverty dynamics with synthetic panels based on cross-sections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6504, The World Bank.
    9. Maria Emma Santos, 2012. "Measuring Chronic Poverty," OPHI Working Papers 52, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    10. Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter & Luoto, Jill & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements into and out of poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 112-128.
    11. Barrett, Christopher B. & Swallow, Brent M., 2006. "Fractal poverty traps," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-15, January.
    12. Dylan Fitz & Shyam Gouri Suresh, 2021. "Poverty traps across levels of aggregation," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(4), pages 909-953, October.
    13. Nicolai Suppa, 2017. "Transitions in Poverty and Deprivations: An Analysis of Multidimensional Poverty Dynamics," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 894, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    14. James E. Foster & Joel Greer & Erik Thorbecke, 2010. "The Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) Poverty Measures: Twenty-Five Years Later," Working Papers 2010-14, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    15. Meng, Yang & Brennan, Alan & Purshouse, Robin & Hill-McManus, Daniel & Angus, Colin & Holmes, John & Meier, Petra Sylvia, 2014. "Estimation of own and cross price elasticities of alcohol demand in the UK—A pseudo-panel approach using the Living Costs and Food Survey 2001–2009," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 96-103.
    16. Giertz, Seth H. & Ramezani, Rasoul, 2018. "Taxes, Wage Capitalization and the Ability of States to Redistribute Income," GLO Discussion Paper Series 291, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    17. World Bank, 2016. "Tunisia Poverty Assessment 2015," World Bank Publications - Reports 24410, The World Bank Group.
    18. Jakobsen, Kristian Thor, 2012. "In the Eye of the Storm—The Welfare Impacts of a Hurricane," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(12), pages 2578-2589.
    19. Echevin, Damien, 2011. "Vulnerability to asset-poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 35660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Rumman Khan, 2018. "Assessing cohort aggregation to minimise bias in pseudo-panels," Discussion Papers 2018-01, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian inference; pseudo panels; data augmentation; walls; poverty dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:29-:d:149744. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.