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Educational attainment as a constraint on economic growth and social progress

  • Yolanda Kodrzycki
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    Unless new policies offset the effects of existing demographic and educational patterns, improvements in labor quality are likely to contribute less to economic growth in the United States in the coming two decades than has been the case since the 1960s. The key reasons for this projection are the relatively slow increase in years of schooling obtained by young adults and the relatively low share of the population in the age group when labor market entry typically occurs. Furthermore, international test scores indicate a continuing mediocre performance for U.S. students on average. These trends suggest that capital formation or technology development would have to provide an offset in order to keep per capita income growth from slowing in coming decades. They also suggest that surges in demand for educated labor, as have occurred periodically in scientific and technical fields, will be challenging to accommodate.

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    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/conf/conf47/conf47d.pdf
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    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its journal Conference Series ; [Proceedings].

    Volume (Year): 47 (2002)
    Issue (Month): Jun ()
    Pages: 37-95

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcp:y:2002:i:jun:p:37-95:n:47
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    1. Acemoglu, D., 1997. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," Working papers 97-14, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    2. Jong-Wha Lee & Robert J. Barro, 1997. "Schooling Quality in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 6198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Paul M. Romer, 2001. "Should the Government Subsidize Supply or Demand in the Market for Scientists and Engineers?," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 1, pages 221-252 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    7. Katharine L. Bradbury & Yolanda K. Kodrzycki & Christopher J. Mayer, 1996. "Spatial and labor market contributions to earnings inequality: an overview," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 1-10.
    8. Melissa A. Clark & David Jaeger, 2002. "Natives, the Foreign-Born and High School Equivalents: New Evidence on the Returns to the GED," Working Papers 841, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    9. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Edward L. Glaeser & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1995. "Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities," NBER Working Papers 5013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    14. Alan B. Krueger & Mikael Lindahl, 2000. "Education for Growth: Why and For Whom?," NBER Working Papers 7591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    16. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1991. "The Nonequivalence of High School Equivalents," NBER Working Papers 3804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    18. Melissa Clark & David Jaeger, 2006. "Natives, the foreign-born and high school equivalents: new evidence on the returns to the GED," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(4), pages 769-793, October.
    19. Jerik Hanushek & Dennis Kimko, 2006. "Schooling, Labor-force Quality, and the Growth of Nations," Educational Studies, Higher School of Economics, issue 1, pages 154-193.
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    21. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
    22. Peter Temin, 2002. "Teacher Quality and the Future of America," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 285-300, Summer.
    23. Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
    24. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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    28. David T. Ellwood, 2001. "The Sputtering Labor Force of the 21st Century. Can Social Policy Help?," NBER Working Papers 8321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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