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On the likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices

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  • Kelly, Morgan

    (University College Dublin (UCD))

Abstract

Looking at house price cycles across the OECD since 1970, we find a strong relationship between the size of the initial rise in price and its subsequent fall. Were this relationship to hold for Ireland, it would predict falls of real house prices of 40 to 60 per cent over a period of 8 to 9 years. The unusually large size of the Irish house building industry suggest that any significant house price fall that does occur could impose a difficult adjustment on the economy.
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Suggested Citation

  • Kelly, Morgan, 2007. "On the likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(2-Summer), pages 42-54.
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:qecsas:2007:summer:kelly
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2006. "Housing Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bulow, Jeremy & Klemperer, Paul, 1994. "Rational Frenzies and Crashes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 1-23, February.
    3. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," NBER Working Papers 12746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Hogan, Vincent & O'Sullivan, Pat, 2007. "Consumption and House Prices in Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(3-Autumn), pages 46-61.
    6. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1994. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 548-565, June.
    7. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2006. "On the Macroeconomics of Asset Shortages," NBER Working Papers 12753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. David Rae & Paul van den Noord, 2006. "Ireland's Housing Boom: What has Driven it and Have Prices Overshot?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 492, OECD Publishing.
    9. FitzGerald, John, 2005. "The Irish Housing Stock: Growth in Number of Vacant Dwellings," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2005(1-Spring), pages 1-22.
    10. Shiller Robert J., 2006. "Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-11, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & O'Brien, Martin, 2007. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2007," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20073, April.
    2. Duffy, David & Durkan, Joe & O'Sullivan, Cormac, 2012. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2011/Spring 2012," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20121, April.
    3. Kennedy, Gerard & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2012. "The Irish Mortgage Market: Stylised Facts, Negative Equity and Arrears," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 85-108, February.
    4. Connor, Gregory & Flavin, Thomas & O’Kelly, Brian, 2012. "The U.S. and Irish credit crises: Their distinctive differences and common features," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 60-79.
    5. Whelan, Karl, 2014. "Ireland’s Economic Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 424-440.
    6. Lane, Philip R., 2011. "The Irish Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8287, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Honohan, Patrick, 2009. "Resolving Ireland’s Banking Crisis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 207-231.
    8. Gylfi Zoega, 2016. "Responding to Capital Flows in a Very Small Economy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(2), pages 159-170, June.
    9. McCarthy, Colm, 2007. "Owner-Occupied Housing Costs and Bias in the Consumer Price Index," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(3-Autumn), pages 83-88.
    10. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John, 2012. "The Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2012(2-Summer).
    11. Lunn, Pete, 2011. "The Role of Decision-Making Biases in Ireland's Banking Crisis," Papers WP389, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. Hamid Raza & Bjorn Gudmundsson & Stephen Kinsella & Gylfi Zoega, 2015. "Experiencing financialisation in small open economies: An empirical investigation of Ireland and Iceland," Working papers wpaper84, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    13. Honohan, Patrick & Donovan, Donal & Gorecki, Paul & Mottiar, Rafique, 2010. "The Irish Banking Crisis: Regulatory and Financial Stability Policy," MPRA Paper 24896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Duffy, David & Durkan, Joe & Casey, Eddie, 2012. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2012," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20122, April.
    15. Constantin Gurdgiev & Brian M. Lucey & Ciarán Mac an Bhaird & Lorcan Roche-Kelly, 2011. "The Irish Economy: Three Strikes and You’re Out?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(1), pages 19-41, March.

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