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Aggregate Shocks or Aggregate Information? Costly Information and Business Cycle Comovement

Author Info

  • Veldkamp, Laura

    ()

    (New York University)

  • Wolfers, Justin

    ()

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

When similar patterns of expansion and contraction are observed across sectors, we call this a business cycle. Yet explaining the similarity and synchronization of these cycles across industries remains a puzzle. Whereas output growth across industries is highly correlated, identifiable shocks, like shocks to productivity, are far less correlated. While previous work has examined complementarities in production, we propose that sectors make similar input decisions because of complementarities in information acquisition. Because information about driving forces has a high fixed cost of production and a low marginal cost of replication, it can be more efficient for firms to share the cost of discovering common shocks than to invest in uncovering detailed sectoral information. Firms basing their decisions on this common information make highly correlated production choices. This mechanism amplifies the effects of common shocks, relative to sectoral shocks

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2339.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54 (s1), 37-55
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2339
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Keywords: information markets; business cycles; comovement puzzle;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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Cited by:

  1. Liyan Yang & Itay Goldstein, 2014. "Good Disclosure, Bad Disclosure," 2014 Meeting Papers 42, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Brockman, Paul & Liebenberg, Ivonne & Schutte, Maria, 2010. "Comovement, information production, and the business cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 107-129, July.
  3. Drago Bergholt & Tommy Sveen, 2014. "Sectoral interdependence and business cycle synchronization in small open economies," Working Paper 2014/04, Norges Bank.
  4. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Lein & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2007. "News and Sectoral Comovement," KOF Working papers 07-183, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  5. Andrew Williams, 2014. "The effect of transparency on output volatility," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 101-129, May.
  6. Martín Saldías, 2011. "A Market-based Approach to Sector Risk Determinants and Transmission in the Euro Area," Working Papers w201130, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  7. Sunoong Hwang & Yongsung Chang, 2011. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," 2011 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Chun, Hyunbae & Kim, Jung-Wook & Morck, Randall & Yeung, Bernard, 2008. "Creative destruction and firm-specific performance heterogeneity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 109-135, July.
  9. Chollete, Loran & Jaffee, Dwight, 2009. "Economic Implications of Extreme and Rare Events," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/32, University of Stavanger.
  10. Yongsung Chang & Sunoong Hwang, 2011. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in the U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," RCER Working Papers 564, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  11. Chollete, Loran & Ning, Cathy, 2009. "The Dependence Structure of Macroeconomic Variables in the US," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/31, University of Stavanger.
  12. Lynch, Andrew & Nikolic, Biljana & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling) & Yu, Han, 2014. "Aggregate short selling, commonality, and stock market returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 199-229.
  13. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Scharler, Johann, 2014. "What Determines Borrowing Costs at the Firm-Level: Firm-Specific and Aggregate Information," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100322, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  14. Buchen, Teresa, 2014. "Information Complementarities and Sectoral Comovement," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100391, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  15. Chollete, Loran & Ning, Cathy, 2012. "Asymmetric Dependence in the US Economy: Application to Money and the Phillips Curve," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/1, University of Stavanger.
  16. Acharya, Sushant, 2014. "Costly information, planning complementarities and the Phillips Curve," Staff Reports 698, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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