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Sensibilidad y asimetrías ante choques de ingreso en el consumo privado de México, 1995-2017

Author

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  • Miguel Ángel Mendoza González

    (Posgrado de la Facultad de Economía, UNAM)

Abstract

Esta investigación analiza con un enfoque poskeynesiano la sobre-sensibilidad y las asimetrías ante choques de ingreso del consumo privado y su desagregación en bienes duraderos, semi-duraderos, no-duraderos y los servicios en México para el período 1995-2017. Para estimar la sobre-sensibilidad se utilizan las metodologías de cointegración de Johansen-Juselius y el método de estimación FMOLS, sin sesgo de endogeneidad de Phillips y Hansen. Para las asimetrías se aplican las pruebas de Seo y Hansen-Seo de cointegración, con regímenes múltiples (cointegración-threshold) y modelos TVECM de vectores de corrección de error, con regímenes múltiples de Seo. Con los resultados se comprueba la existencia de sobre-sensibilidad del consumo privado y del consumo de la mayoría de los bienes por durabilidad (nacional e importado) y comportamientos asimétricos de régimen bajo, consistente con un escenario de crisis económica. Sensitivity and asymmetries of income shocks in Mexico's private consumption, 1995-2017ABSTRACTWith a Postkeynesian approach, this research analyzes the over-sensitivity and asymmetries of income shocks of private consumption and its unbundling into durable, semi-durable, non-durable goods and services in Mexico for the period 1995-2017. To estimate over-sensitivity to income, cointegration methodologies from Johansen-Juselius are used and the FMOLS estimation method without endogeneity bias of Phillips and Hansen. And, for the asymmetries, this study applies the tests of Seo and Hansen-Seo of cointegration with multiple regimes (threshold-cointegration) and threshold vector error correction model (threshold-VECM) with multiple regimes of Seo. The results show the existence of over-sensitivity of private consumption and durability for most of the goods (national and imported) and low-level asymmetric behaviors consistent with a scenario of economic crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Ángel Mendoza González, 2020. "Sensibilidad y asimetrías ante choques de ingreso en el consumo privado de México, 1995-2017," Ensayos Revista de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, vol. 39(1), pages 21-58, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:39:y:2020:i:1:id:135
    DOI: 10.29105/ensayos39.1-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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