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The consumption response to positive and negative income changes

Author

Listed:
  • Bunn, Philip

    (Bank of England)

  • Le Roux, Jeanne

    (Bank of England)

  • Reinold, Kate

    (Bank of England)

  • Surico, Paolo

    (London Business School and CEPR)

Abstract

A set of newly added questions in the 2011 to 2014 Bank of England/NMG Consulting Survey reveals that British households are estimated to change their consumption by significantly more in reaction to temporary and unanticipated falls in income than to rises of the same size. Household balance sheet characteristics (including the presence of a savings buffer), concerns about credit market access and higher subjective risk of lower future income account for a sizable share of this spending asymmetry and explain significant variation in the marginal propensity to consume across households. Our findings have important implications for predicting the response of aggregate consumption to expansionary and contractionary macroeconomic policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Bunn, Philip & Le Roux, Jeanne & Reinold, Kate & Surico, Paolo, 2017. "The consumption response to positive and negative income changes," Bank of England working papers 645, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0645
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Attanasio, Orazio & Davis, Steven J, 1996. "Relative Wage Movements and the Distribution of Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1227-1262, December.
    2. Daniel Aaronson & Sumit Agarwal & Eric French, 2012. "The Spending and Debt Response to Minimum Wage Hikes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3111-3139, December.
    3. Sumit Agarwal & Wenlan Qian, 2014. "Consumption and Debt Response to Unanticipated Income Shocks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Singapore," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 4205-4230, December.
    4. Claudia R. Sahm & Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2012. "Check in the Mail or More in the Paycheck: Does the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Depend on How It Is Delivered?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 216-250, August.
    5. Thomas F. Crossley & Cormac O'Dea & Gareth Anderson & Philip Bunn & Alice Pugh & Arzu Uluc, 2016. "The Bank of England / NMG Survey of Household Finances," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 37, pages 131-152, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2017. "Reported Effects vs. Revealed-Preference Estimates: Evidence from the propensity to spend tax rebates," NBER Working Papers 23920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pierre Emmanuel Weil, 2018. "Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave: A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age, Income and Wealth," 2018 Papers pwe433, Job Market Papers.
    3. Regis Barnichon & Davide Debortoli & Christian Matthes, 2022. "Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign [Downward Wage Rigidity and Business Cycle Asymmetries]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 87-117.
    4. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2020. "Reported MPC and Unobserved Heterogeneity," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 275-297, November.
    5. Corrado, Luisa & Silgado-Gómez, Edgar & Yoo, Donghoon & Waldmann, Robert, 2022. "Ambiguous economic news and heterogeneity: What explains asymmetric consumption responses?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Gianluca Cafiso, 2022. "Loans to Different Groups and Economic Activity at Times of Crisis and Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 594-623, June.
    7. Ampudia, Miguel & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Vermeulen, Philip & Violante, Giovanni L., 2018. "Monetary policy and household inequality," Working Paper Series 2170, European Central Bank.
    8. Andrea Neri & Concetta Rondinelli & Filippo Scoccianti, 2017. "Household spending out of a tax rebate: Italian ��80 tax bonus�," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 379, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Bernard, René, 2022. "Mental Accounting and the Marginal Propensity to Consume," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264186, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Sang-yoon Song, 2020. "Leverage, Hand-to-Mouth Households, and Heterogeneity of the Marginal Propensity to Consume: Evidence from South Korea," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1213-1244, December.
    11. Andreas Fuster & Greg Kaplan & Basit Zafar, 2021. "What Would You Do with $500? Spending Responses to Gains, Losses, News, and Loans [The Spending and Debt Response to Minimum Wage Hikes]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(4), pages 1760-1795.
    12. Neri, Andrea & Rondinelli, Concetta & Scoccianti, Filippo, 2017. "Household spending out of a tax rebate: Italian “€80 tax bonus”," Working Paper Series 2099, European Central Bank.
    13. Yoo, Donghoon, 2019. "Ambiguous information, permanent income, and consumption fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 79-96.
    14. Hadiye Aslan, 2022. "Personal Financial Distress, Limited Attention," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 97-128, March.
    15. Bernard, René, 2023. "Mental accounting and the marginal propensity to consume," Discussion Papers 13/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. repec:ecb:ecbdps:20186 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Miguel Ángel Mendoza González, 2020. "Sensibilidad y asimetrías ante choques de ingreso en el consumo privado de México, 1995-2017. (Sensitivity and asymmetries of income shocks in Mexico's private consumption, 1995-2017)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 21-58, May.
    18. Mosley, Max, 2021. "The importance of being earners: Modelling the implications of changes to welfare contributions on macroeconomic recovery," MPRA Paper 108620, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    MPC asymmetry; household balance sheet; heterogeneity; transmission mechanism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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