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Ithalat-Ihracat-Doviz Kuru Bagimliligi: Bootstrap ile Duzeltilmis Nedensellik Testi Uygulamasi

  • Ertugrul YILDIRIM


    (Zonguldak Karaelmas Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Birimler Fakultesi, Iktisat Bolumu)



    (Zonguldak Karaelmas Universitesi, Devrek Meslek Yuksekokulu, Muhasebe ve Vergi Uygulamalari Bolumu)

2003:1 ile 2011:9 doneminde Turkiye’nin ithalat-ihracat-reel doviz kuru arasindaki nedensellik iliskisinin ampirik olarak arastirildigi bu calismada Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) tarafindan onerilen kaldiracli bootstrap teknigiyle duzeltilmis MWALD testi uygulanmistir. Toplam ihracat-toplam ithalat, toplam ihracat-ara mali ithalati, toplam ihracat-sermaye mali ithalati, toplam ithalat-tuketim mali ihracati ve sermaye mali ithalati tuketim mali ihracati arasinda iki yonlu nedensellik iliskisi bulunmustur. Toplam ihracattan tuketim mali ithalatina dogru, tuketim mali ihracatindan tuketim mali ithalatina ve ara mali ithalatina dogru tek yonlu iliski bulunmustur. Doviz kuru ile ithalat ve ihracat arasindaki nedensellik iliskilerine yonelik tahminlerin tamaminda bir nedensellik iliskisine rastlanmamistir. Bulgular butun olarak degerlendirildiginde, ithalat ve ihracat arasindaki bagimliligin doviz kuru politikasini yansiz hale getirdigini ima etmektedir.

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Article provided by Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences in its journal Ege Academic Review.

Volume (Year): 12 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 137-148

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Handle: RePEc:ege:journl:v:12:y:2012:i:2:p:137-148
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