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Natural Disasters and Land Use Dynamics: Evidence from Earthquake-Induced Deforestation

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  • Yan, Youpei
  • Paudel, Jayash

Abstract

Understanding how seismic shocks influence land use dynamics has direct implications on climate change mitigation and adaptation. We exploit geo-spatial remote sensing data on changes in land conversion among 3,983 villages within different radii of the earthquake epicenter across several years before and after the incidence of the 2015 earthquake in Nepal. Our difference-in-differences (DiD) estimates show that earthquake-affected villages located within 30–120 kilometers (kms) of the epicenter saw a significant rise in land conversion from savannas and forests to croplands. These earthquake-induced changes in land conversion diminish with distance, with an average decrease in cropland conversion of 4 m2 per km of distance from the epicenter. Results illustrate that villages with larger agricultural investments converted more cropland from deforestation, implying that earthquake-affected households prioritized short-term agricultural gains over environmental considerations. Our findings suggest that while high-investment regions adapt by intensifying agricultural production, low-investment counterparts may require supplementary support to recover from natural disasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan, Youpei & Paudel, Jayash, 2025. "Natural Disasters and Land Use Dynamics: Evidence from Earthquake-Induced Deforestation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:196:y:2025:i:c:s0305750x25002426
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107156
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    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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