Virtual reality simulation game approach to investigate transport adaptive capacity for peak oil planning
The peak and decline of world oil production is an emerging issue for transportation and urban planners. Peak oil from an energy perspective means that there will be progressively less fuel. Our work treats changes in oil supply as a risk to transport activity systems. A virtual reality survey method, based on the sim game concept, has been developed to audit the participant’s normal weekly travel activity, and to explore participant’s travel adaptive capacity. The travel adaptive capacity assessment (TACA) Sim survey uses avatars, Google Map™, 2D scenes, interactive screens and feedback scores. Travel adaptive capacity is proposed as a measure of long-range resilience of activity systems to fuel supply decline. Mode adaptive potential is proposed as an indicator of the future demand growth for less energy intensive travel. Both adaptation indicators can be used for peak oil vulnerability assessment. A case study was conducted involving 90 participants in Christchurch New Zealand. All of the participants were students, general staff or academics at the University of Canterbury. The adaptive capacity was assessed by both simulated extreme fuel price shock and by asking, “do you have an alternative mode?” without price pressure. The travel adaptive capacity in number of kilometers was 75% under a 5-fold fuel price increase. The mode adaptive potential was 33% cycling, 21% walking and 22% bus. Academics had adaptive capacity of only 1–5% of trips by canceling or carrying out their activity from home compared to 10–18% for students.
Volume (Year): 46 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kurani, Kenneth S & Turrentine, Tom & Sperling, Daniel, 1994. "Demand for electric vehicles in hybrid households: an exploratory analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 244-256, October.
- Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
- Kingham, S. & Dickinson, J. & Copsey, S, 2001. "Travelling to work: will people move out of their cars," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 151-160, April.
- Kurani, Kenneth S. & Turrentine, Tom & Sperling, Daniel, 1994. "Demand for Electric Vehicles in Hybrid Households: An Exploratory Analysis," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1c29r4hr, University of California Transportation Center.
- Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
- Handy, Susan & Weston, Lisa & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2005. "Driving by choice or necessity?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 183-203.
- Krumdieck, Susan & Page, Shannon & Dantas, André, 2010. "Urban form and long-term fuel supply decline: A method to investigate the peak oil risks to essential activities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 306-322, June.
- Sean Doherty & Eric Miller, 2000. "A computerized household activity scheduling survey," Transportation, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 75-97, February.
- Sean Puckett & David Hensher & John Rose & Andrew Collins, 2007. "Design and development of a stated choice experiment for interdependent agents: accounting for interactions between buyers and sellers of urban freight services," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 429-451, July.
- Bruno Faivre d'Arcier & Odile Andan & Charles Raux, 1998. "Stated adaptation surveys and choice process: Some methodological issues," Post-Print halshs-00139993, HAL.
- Zephyr, 2010. "The city," City, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1-2), pages 154-155, February.
- Lee, Ming-Sheng, 2001. "Experiments With A Computerized Self-Administrative Activity Survey," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt55h7r7x0, University of California Transportation Center.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:46:y:2012:i:2:p:348-367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.