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The impact of business models on electric vehicle adoption: A latent transition analysis approach

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  • Liao, Fanchao
  • Molin, Eric
  • Timmermans, Harry
  • van Wee, Bert

Abstract

It is often argued that successful market penetration of electric vehicles may not only rely on the characteristics of the technology but also on business models. However, empirical evidence for this is largely lacking. This study intends to fill this gap by assessing the impact of business models, in particular battery and vehicle leasing, on Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption. By conducting a stated choice experiment, we examine to what extent car drivers switch their choices between conventional and electric vehicles after business models become available. The results based on the discrete choice model suggest that leasing does not increase EV adoption at the aggregate level. However, a latent transition analysis shows that different groups with internally homogeneous preferences react differently to leasing options at the disaggregate level. The results indicate that 13% of the car drivers changed their preferences, albeit in different ways. Transition probabilities are particularly related to attitudes towards leasing and knowledge of EV. The results show that leasing is useful in facilitating EV adoption for certain groups, which can be identified by their individual characteristics. In addition to these substantial insights, this paper makes a contribution to the literature by demonstrating the potential of latent transition analysis in uncovering heterogeneity in behavioral changes induced by policy or strategy interventions, especially when changes can occur in opposite directions.

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  • Liao, Fanchao & Molin, Eric & Timmermans, Harry & van Wee, Bert, 2018. "The impact of business models on electric vehicle adoption: A latent transition analysis approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 531-546.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:116:y:2018:i:c:p:531-546
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2018.07.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Huang, Youlin & Qian, Lixian, 2021. "Consumer adoption of electric vehicles in alternative business models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Hu, Xu & Yang, Zhaojun & Sun, Jun & Zhang, Yali, 2023. "Optimal pricing strategy for electric vehicle battery swapping: Pay-per-swap or subscription?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    4. Andre L. Carrel & Lee V. White & Christina Gore & Harsh Shah, 2024. "Subscribing to new technology: consumer preferences for short-term ownership of electric vehicles," Transportation, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 875-909, June.
    5. Kong, Deyang & Xia, Quhong & Xue, Yixi & Zhao, Xin, 2020. "Effects of multi policies on electric vehicle diffusion under subsidy policy abolishment in China: A multi-actor perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    6. Fatemeh Nazari & Abolfazl Mohammadian & Thomas Stephens, 2023. "Exploring the Role of Perceived Range Anxiety in Adoption Behavior of Plug-in Electric Vehicles," Papers 2308.10313, arXiv.org.
    7. Guevara, C. Angelo & Figueroa, Esteban & Munizaga, Marcela A., 2021. "Paving the road for electric vehicles: Lessons from a randomized experiment in an introduction stage market," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 326-340.
    8. Li, Yina & Liang, Chenchen & Ye, Fei & Zhao, Xiande, 2023. "Designing government subsidy schemes to promote the electric vehicle industry: A system dynamics model perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    9. Liao, Fanchao & Molin, Eric & Timmermans, Harry & van Wee, Bert, 2019. "Consumer preferences for business models in electric vehicle adoption," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 12-24.
    10. Gabriela D. Oliveira & Luis C. Dias, 2019. "Influence of Demographics on Consumer Preferences for Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Review of Choice Modelling Studies and a Study in Portugal," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-33, January.
    11. Jia, Wenjian & Chen, T. Donna, 2023. "Investigating heterogeneous preferences for plug-in electric vehicles: Policy implications from different choice models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Rachana Vidhi & Prasanna Shrivastava & Abhishek Parikh, 2021. "Social and Technological Impact of Businesses Surrounding Electric Vehicles," Clean Technol., MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, February.

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