IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v266y2020ics0306261920303998.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of multi policies on electric vehicle diffusion under subsidy policy abolishment in China: A multi-actor perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Kong, Deyang
  • Xia, Quhong
  • Xue, Yixi
  • Zhao, Xin

Abstract

A comprehensive understanding of how the policy mix influences the market diffusion of sustainable technology is a critical focus of recent research. Electric vehicles are considered to have the potential to address energy depletion, climate warming, and air pollution. This study attempts to investigate the effect of multiple policies, namely, product subsidy, carbon emission trading, and license plate restriction policies on electric vehicle diffusion once the purchase subsidy scheme is phased out in China. Thus, a system dynamics model that considers the interaction explicitly among the government, enterprises, and consumers is proposed. Multiple scenarios are adopted to analyze the policy effect on electric vehicle diffusion. Findings reveal the market share of electric vehicles in China will drop by 40.39% in 2020 if the purchase subsidy scheme is abolished. The three policies discussed in this paper can make up for the negative impact of purchase subsidy policy abolishment and promote the long-term growth of EVs. However, according to an in-depth analysis of the policy mechanism, these policies should also be adjusted according to the actual situation and their roles can only be optimized by combining them with other policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kong, Deyang & Xia, Quhong & Xue, Yixi & Zhao, Xin, 2020. "Effects of multi policies on electric vehicle diffusion under subsidy policy abolishment in China: A multi-actor perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:266:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920303998
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114887
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920303998
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Lanlan & Xu, Jintao & Qin, Ping, 2014. "Will a driving restriction policy reduce car trips?—The case study of Beijing, China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 279-290.
    2. Yang, Shu & Cheng, Peng & Li, Jun & Wang, Shanyong, 2019. "Which group should policies target? Effects of incentive policies and product cognitions for electric vehicle adoption among Chinese consumers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Shao, Lulu & Yang, Jun & Zhang, Min, 2017. "Subsidy scheme or price discount scheme? Mass adoption of electric vehicles under different market structures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(3), pages 1181-1195.
    4. Edmondson, Duncan L. & Kern, Florian & Rogge, Karoline S., 2019. "The co-evolution of policy mixes and socio-technical systems: Towards a conceptual framework of policy mix feedback in sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(10).
    5. Viard, V. Brian & Fu, Shihe, 2015. "The effect of Beijing's driving restrictions on pollution and economic activity," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 98-115.
    6. Langbroek, Joram H.M. & Franklin, Joel P. & Susilo, Yusak O., 2016. "The effect of policy incentives on electric vehicle adoption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 94-103.
    7. Li, Jingjing & Jiao, Jianling & Tang, Yunshu, 2019. "An evolutionary analysis on the effect of government policies on electric vehicle diffusion in complex network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1-12.
    8. Nishimura, Junichi & Okamuro, Hiroyuki, 2011. "Subsidy and networking: The effects of direct and indirect support programs of the cluster policy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 714-727, June.
    9. Fan, Ruguo & Dong, Lili, 2018. "The dynamic analysis and simulation of government subsidy strategies in low-carbon diffusion considering the behavior of heterogeneous agents," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 252-262.
    10. Liao, Fanchao & Molin, Eric & Timmermans, Harry & van Wee, Bert, 2018. "The impact of business models on electric vehicle adoption: A latent transition analysis approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 531-546.
    11. Wang, Ning & Tang, Linhao & Zhang, Wenjian & Guo, Jiahui, 2019. "How to face the challenges caused by the abolishment of subsidies for electric vehicles in China?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 359-372.
    12. Li, Wenbo & Long, Ruyin & Chen, Hong, 2016. "Consumers’ evaluation of national new energy vehicle policy in China: An analysis based on a four paradigm model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 33-41.
    13. Luo, Qi & Saigal, Romesh & Chen, Zhibin & Yin, Yafeng, 2019. "Accelerating the adoption of automated vehicles by subsidies: A dynamic games approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 226-243.
    14. Lian Lian & Wen Tian & Hongfeng Xu & Menglan Zheng, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Passenger Car Ownership Based on Symbolic Regression," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, July.
    15. Lee, Yongseung & Kim, Chongman & Shin, Juneseuk, 2016. "A hybrid electric vehicle market penetration model to identify the best policy mix: A consumer ownership cycle approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 438-449.
    16. Wang, Shanyong & Li, Jun & Zhao, Dingtao, 2017. "The impact of policy measures on consumer intention to adopt electric vehicles: Evidence from China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 14-26.
    17. Nian, Victor & Hari, M.P. & Yuan, Jun, 2019. "A new business model for encouraging the adoption of electric vehicles in the absence of policy support," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1106-1117.
    18. Dang, Jianwei & Motohashi, Kazuyuki, 2015. "Patent statistics: A good indicator for innovation in China? Patent subsidy program impacts on patent quality," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 137-155.
    19. Li, Wenbo & Long, Ruyin & Chen, Hong & Yang, Tong & Geng, Jichao & Yang, Muyi, 2018. "Effects of personal carbon trading on the decision to adopt battery electric vehicles: Analysis based on a choice experiment in Jiangsu, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 478-488.
    20. Zhang, Xiang & Bai, Xue, 2017. "Incentive policies from 2006 to 2016 and new energy vehicle adoption in 2010–2020 in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 24-43.
    21. Li, Zhe & Ouyang, Minggao, 2011. "A win-win marginal rent analysis for operator and consumer under battery leasing mode in China electric vehicle market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3222-3237, June.
    22. Du, Jiuyu & Ouyang, Danhua, 2017. "Progress of Chinese electric vehicles industrialization in 2015: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 529-546.
    23. Martin, Nigel & Rice, John, 2015. "Improving Australia's renewable energy project policy and planning: A multiple stakeholder analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 128-141.
    24. Gu, Huaying & Liu, Zhixue & Qing, Qiankai, 2017. "Optimal electric vehicle production strategy under subsidy and battery recycling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 579-589.
    25. Yoo, Sunbin & Koh, Kyung Woong & Yoshida, Yoshikuni & Wakamori, Naoki, 2019. "Revisiting Jevons's paradox of energy rebound: Policy implications and empirical evidence in consumer-oriented financial incentives from the Japanese automobile market, 2006–2016," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    26. Tian Wu & Hongmei Zhao & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(8), pages 1-23, August.
    27. Diao, Qinghua & Sun, Wei & Yuan, Xinmei & Li, Lili & Zheng, Zhi, 2016. "Life-cycle private-cost-based competitiveness analysis of electric vehicles in China considering the intangible cost of traffic policies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 567-578.
    28. Sun, Xiaohua & Liu, Xiaoling & Wang, Yun & Yuan, Fang, 2019. "The effects of public subsidies on emerging industry: An agent-based model of the electric vehicle industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 281-295.
    29. Bhamidipati, Padmasai Lakshmi & Haselip, James & Elmer Hansen, Ulrich, 2019. "How do energy policies accelerate sustainable transitions? Unpacking the policy transfer process in the case of GETFiT Uganda," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1320-1332.
    30. Huang, Weixiang & Zhou, Wenhui & Chen, Jiguang & Chen, Xiaohong, 2019. "The government’s optimal subsidy scheme under Manufacturers’ competition of price and product energy efficiency," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 70-101.
    31. Moradi, Afsaneh & Vagnoni, Emidia, 2018. "A multi-level perspective analysis of urban mobility system dynamics: What are the future transition pathways?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 231-243.
    32. Sierzchula, William & Bakker, Sjoerd & Maat, Kees & van Wee, Bert, 2014. "The influence of financial incentives and other socio-economic factors on electric vehicle adoption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 183-194.
    33. Liu, Dunnan & Xiao, Bowen, 2018. "Exploring the development of electric vehicles under policy incentives: A scenario-based system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 8-23.
    34. He, Senyu & Yin, Jianhua & Zhang, Bin & Wang, Zhaohua, 2018. "How to upgrade an enterprise’s low-carbon technologies under a carbon tax: The trade-off between tax and upgrade fee," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 564-573.
    35. Lu, Chao & Liu, Hu-Chen & Tao, Jie & Rong, Ke & Hsieh, Ying-Che, 2017. "A key stakeholder-based financial subsidy stimulation for Chinese EV industrialization: A system dynamics simulation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 1-14.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhu, Lijing & Wang, Peize & Zhang, Qi, 2019. "Indirect network effects in China’s electric vehicle diffusion under phasing out subsidies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Li, Jingjing & Jiao, Jianling & Tang, Yunshu, 2020. "Analysis of the impact of policies intervention on electric vehicles adoption considering information transmission—based on consumer network model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Wang, Ning & Tang, Linhao & Zhang, Wenjian & Guo, Jiahui, 2019. "How to face the challenges caused by the abolishment of subsidies for electric vehicles in China?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 359-372.
    4. Yang, Shu & Cheng, Peng & Li, Jun & Wang, Shanyong, 2019. "Which group should policies target? Effects of incentive policies and product cognitions for electric vehicle adoption among Chinese consumers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Li, Yaoming & Zhang, Qi & Liu, Boyu & McLellan, Benjamin & Gao, Yuan & Tang, Yanyan, 2018. "Substitution effect of New-Energy Vehicle Credit Program and Corporate Average Fuel Consumption Regulation for Green-car Subsidy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 223-236.
    6. Liu, Dunnan & Xiao, Bowen, 2018. "Exploring the development of electric vehicles under policy incentives: A scenario-based system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 8-23.
    7. Zhuge, Chengxiang & Wei, Binru & Shao, Chunfu & Shan, Yuli & Dong, Chunjiao, 2020. "The role of the license plate lottery policy in the adoption of Electric Vehicles: A case study of Beijing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Wang, Sinan & Zhao, Fuquan & Liu, Zongwei & Hao, Han, 2018. "Impacts of a super credit policy on electric vehicle penetration and compliance with China's Corporate Average Fuel Consumption regulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 746-762.
    9. Li, Jingjing & Jiao, Jianling & Tang, Yunshu, 2019. "An evolutionary analysis on the effect of government policies on electric vehicle diffusion in complex network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1-12.
    10. Wang, Ning & Tang, Linhao & Pan, Huizhong, 2017. "Effectiveness of policy incentives on electric vehicle acceptance in China: A discrete choice analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 210-218.
    11. Li, Jizi & Ku, Yaoyao & Yu, Yue & Liu, Chunling & Zhou, Yuping, 2020. "Optimizing production of new energy vehicles with across-chain cooperation under China’s dual credit policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    12. Ji, Shou-feng & Zhao, Dan & Luo, Rong-juan, 2019. "Evolutionary game analysis on local governments and manufacturers' behavioral strategies: Impact of phasing out subsidies for new energy vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    13. Ma, Shao-Chao & Fan, Ying, 2020. "A deployment model of EV charging piles and its impact on EV promotion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    14. Tang, Yanyan & Zhang, Qi & Li, Yaoming & Li, Hailong & Pan, Xunzhang & Mclellan, Benjamin, 2019. "The social-economic-environmental impacts of recycling retired EV batteries under reward-penalty mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Fan, Zhi-Ping & Cao, Yue & Huang, Chun-Yong & Li, Yongli, 2020. "Pricing strategies of domestic and imported electric vehicle manufacturers and the design of government subsidy and tariff policies," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    16. Ji, Zhenya & Huang, Xueliang, 2018. "Plug-in electric vehicle charging infrastructure deployment of China towards 2020: Policies, methodologies, and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 710-727.
    17. Baodi Zhang & Fuyuan Yang & Lan Teng & Minggao Ouyang & Kunfang Guo & Weifeng Li & Jiuyu Du, 2019. "Comparative Analysis of Technical Route and Market Development for Light-Duty PHEV in China and the US," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(19), pages 1-23, September.
    18. Goldschmidt, Rüdiger & Richter, Andreas & Pfeil, Raphael, 2019. "Active stakeholder involvement and organisational tasks as factors for an effective communication and governance strategy in the promotion of e-taxis. Results from a field research lab," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    19. Wang, Shanyong & Wang, Jing & Li, Jun & Wang, Jinpeng & Liang, Liang, 2018. "Policy implications for promoting the adoption of electric vehicles: Do consumer’s knowledge, perceived risk and financial incentive policy matter?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 58-69.
    20. Xiao, Xu & Chen, Zi-Rui & Nie, Pu-Yan, 2020. "Analysis of two subsidies for EVs: Based on an expanded theoretical discrete-choice model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:266:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920303998. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nithya Sathishkumar). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.