IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v215y2025ics0040162525000058.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

African green hydrogen uptake from the lens of African development and European energy security: A blessing or curse?

Author

Listed:
  • Sadik-Zada, Elkhan Richard
  • Gatto, Andrea
  • Schäfer, Nils

Abstract

The present paper explores the perspectives on the rollout of green hydrogen in Africa from sectoral and macroeconomic viewpoints. It critically reviews the datasets projecting the costs of renewable hydrogen and the current state of the import/export market; besides, based on key scientific publications, trends, and gaps in the green hydrogen economy, fresh insights are detected through integrative review and scientometrics. Microeconomically founded scenario analyses are conducted, focusing on Africa. Hence, the study offers an outlook on the contribution of green hydrogen to African economic development. The inquiry finds that, due to economies of scale, green hydrogen production and exports will likely be concentrated in a few African countries that achieve competitive production costs relatively early. Additionally, cost considerations and the level of the development of democratic institutions will also play a crucial role in establishing renewable hydrogen export hubs in Africa. Assessment of the IEA Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure Projects Database, updated in October 2023, reveals that Egypt, Morocco, Namibia, and South Africa are the leading candidates for hydrogen production and exports from Africa. Consequently, the EU-driven expansion of global green hydrogen production centers in the 2020s and 2030s could result in a shift from petroleum dependence on the Middle East and Russia to hydrogen reliance on just a few African countries by the early 2040s. This deployment could conflict with European interests in fostering energy cooperation with Africa. Without development of comprehensive hydrogen value chains in Africa, green hydrogen sector risksperpetuating extractivism and insecurity, resulting in enclave-style renewable hydrogen industry and a “hydrogen-curse” that exacerbates African maldevelopment.

Suggested Citation

  • Sadik-Zada, Elkhan Richard & Gatto, Andrea & Schäfer, Nils, 2025. "African green hydrogen uptake from the lens of African development and European energy security: A blessing or curse?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:215:y:2025:i:c:s0040162525000058
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123974
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162525000058
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123974?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:215:y:2025:i:c:s0040162525000058. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.