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Long-term analysis of Kaldor's law applied to Brazil (1909-2020)

Author

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  • Doré, Natalia I.
  • Araújo, Eliane

Abstract

Nicholas Kaldor asserts that the industry is a crucial factor in promoting economic growth, suggesting that the sector's increasing returns to scale significantly impact the overall productivity of the economy. This paper assesses the relevance of Kaldor's laws for the Brazilian economy, offering new insights into their applicability through a novel methodological approach. The study contributes to the literature by employing Markov Regime-Switching (MS) models to capture nonlinear dynamics in output, productivity, and employment growth in the manufacturing sector, over a very long-term period (1909–2020). By distinguishing between lower and higher growth regimes, the analysis demonstrates that Kaldor's laws remain valid in the Brazilian context. The findings underscore the industrial sector's critical role in promoting economic growth and enhancing productivity and employment, while revealing significant non-linearities in these relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Doré, Natalia I. & Araújo, Eliane, 2025. "Long-term analysis of Kaldor's law applied to Brazil (1909-2020)," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 147-157.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:74:y:2025:i:c:p:147-157
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.03.004
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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