IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceps/v99y2025ics0038012125000564.html

Risky decline? Exploring the determinants of pupil's proficiency development over time

Author

Listed:
  • Diaz Lema, Melisa L.
  • Masci, Chiara
  • Soncin, Mara
  • Agasisti, Tommaso

Abstract

The early identification of at-risk students and of factors influencing proficiency development are crucial in education policy. This study investigates how students' fluctuations in academic performance during primary school impact the probability of being at-risk in Mathematics and Reading by the end of lower secondary school. Leveraging longitudinal data from 278,765 students in Italy, this study employs a multilevel multinomial model with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to explore personal, class, and school-related factors steering shifts between proficiency and non-proficiency. Findings highlight the importance of these transitions in predicting at-risk students at grade 8, emphasizing the role of peers' academic achievements and the variation across schools in shaping proficiency development.

Suggested Citation

  • Diaz Lema, Melisa L. & Masci, Chiara & Soncin, Mara & Agasisti, Tommaso, 2025. "Risky decline? Exploring the determinants of pupil's proficiency development over time," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:99:y:2025:i:c:s0038012125000564
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102207
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012125000564
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.seps.2025.102207?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Mahuteau & K. Mavromaras, 2014. "An analysis of the impact of socio-economic disadvantage and school quality on the probability of school dropout," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 389-411, August.
    2. James Heckman & Flavio Cunha, 2007. "The Technology of Skill Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 31-47, May.
    3. Hadfield, Jarrod D., 2010. "MCMC Methods for Multi-Response Generalized Linear Mixed Models: The MCMCglmm R Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i02).
    4. repec:bla:econom:v:68:y:2001:i:272:p:465-88 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hill, Darryl V. & Hughes, Rodney P. & Lenard, Matthew A. & Liebowitz, David D. & Page, Lindsay C., 2023. "New schools and new classmates: The disruption and peer group effects of school reassignment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    6. Harold Alderman & Jere R. Behrman & Victor Lavy & Rekha Menon, 2001. "Child Health and School Enrollment: A Longitudinal Analysis," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(1), pages 185-205.
    7. Borgna, Camilla & Struffolino, Emanuela, 2017. "Pushed or pulled? Girls and boys facing early school leaving risk in Italy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 61, pages 298-313.
    8. Doyle, Orla & Harmon, Colm P. & Heckman, James J. & Tremblay, Richard E., 2009. "Investing in early human development: Timing and economic efficiency," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-6, March.
    9. Tommaso Agasisti & Mara Soncin & Riccardo Valenti, 2016. "School factors helping disadvantaged students to succeed: empirical evidence from four Italian cities," Policy Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 147-177, March.
    10. Dario Sansone, 2019. "Beyond Early Warning Indicators: High School Dropout and Machine Learning," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(2), pages 456-485, April.
    11. Jong–Wha Lee & Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Schooling Quality in a Cross–Section of Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(272), pages 465-488, November.
    12. Eric A. Hanushek, 1979. "Conceptual and Empirical Issues in the Estimation of Educational Production Functions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(3), pages 351-388.
    13. Monique Löwe & Ulf Rinne & Hendrik Sonnabend, 2023. "Gender role models and early-career decisions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(11), pages 1526-1530, June.
    14. Aucejo, Esteban M. & Romano, Teresa Foy, 2016. "Assessing the effect of school days and absences on test score performance," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 70-87.
    15. Masci, Chiara & De Witte, Kristof & Agasisti, Tommaso, 2018. "The influence of school size, principal characteristics and school management practices on educational performance: An efficiency analysis of Italian students attending middle schools," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 52-69.
    16. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman & Susanne M. Schennach, 2010. "Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 883-931, May.
    17. Charles T. Clotfelter & Helen F. Ladd & Jacob L. Vigdor, 2010. "Teacher Credentials and Student Achievement in High School: A Cross-Subject Analysis with Student Fixed Effects," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(3).
    18. Bozzano, Monica & Cappelli, Gabriele & Vasta, Michelangelo, 2024. "Whither Education? The Long Shadow of Pre-Unification School Systems into Italy’s Liberal Age (1861–1911)," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(1), pages 149-190, March.
    19. Charles Hirschman, 2001. "The educational enrollment of immigrant youth: A test of the segmented-assimilation hypothesis," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(3), pages 317-336, August.
    20. Clotfelter, Charles T. & Ladd, Helen F. & Vigdor, Jacob L., 2007. "Teacher credentials and student achievement: Longitudinal analysis with student fixed effects," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 673-682, December.
    21. Judith Glaesser, 2022. "Relative educational poverty: conceptual and empirical issues," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2803-2820, August.
    22. Contini, Dalit & Tommaso, Maria Laura Di & Mendolia, Silvia, 2017. "The gender gap in mathematics achievement: Evidence from Italian data," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 32-42.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burgess, Simon, 2016. "Human Capital and Education: The State of the Art in the Economics of Education," IZA Discussion Papers 9885, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Timothy M. Diette & Ruth Uwaifo Oyelere, 2017. "Do limited English students jeopardize the education of other students? Lessons from the North Carolina public school system," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 446-461, September.
    3. Nicoletti, Cheti & Sevilla, Almudena & Tonei, Valentina, 2022. "Gender Stereotypes in the Family," IZA Discussion Papers 15773, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Sonia Bhalotra & Martin Karlsson & Therese Nilsson & Nina Schwarz, 2022. "Infant Health, Cognitive Performance, and Earnings: Evidence from Inception of the Welfare State in Sweden," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1138-1156, November.
    5. Schultz-Nielsen, Marie Louise & Tekin, Erdal & Greve, Jane, 2016. "Labor market effects of intrauterine exposure to nutritional deficiency: Evidence from administrative data on Muslim immigrants in Denmark," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 196-209.
    6. Heather Congdon Fors & Annika Lindskog, 2023. "Within‐family inequalities in human capital accumulation in India," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 3-28, February.
    7. Vittadini, Giorgio & Sturaro, Caterina & Folloni, Giuseppe, 2022. "Non-Cognitive Skills and Cognitive Skills to measure school efficiency," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Huebener, Mathias & Kuger, Susanne & Marcus, Jan, 2017. "Increased instruction hours and the widening gap in student performance," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 47, pages 15-34.
    9. Coneus, Katja & Laucht, Manfred & Reuß, Karsten, 2012. "The role of parental investments for cognitive and noncognitive skill formation—Evidence for the first 11 years of life," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 189-209.
    10. Kurtz, Michael D. & Conway, Karen Smith & Mohr, Robert D., 2020. "Weekend feeding (“BackPack”) programs and student outcomes," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Francisco J. Cabrera-Hernández & Pedro P. Orraca-Romano, 2023. "Inequality in the Household: How Parental Income Matters for the Long-Term Treatment of Healthy and Unhealthy Siblings," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 674-692, September.
    12. Giorgio Di Pietro & Federico Biagi & Patricia Costa & Zbigniew Karpinski & Jacopo Mazza, 2020. "The likely impact of COVID-19 on education: Reflections based on the existing literature and recent international datasets," JRC Research Reports JRC121071, Joint Research Centre.
    13. Seah, Kelvin KC, 2018. "Immigrant educators and students’ academic achievement," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 152-169.
    14. Mark E. McGovern & Slawa Rokicki, 2023. "The Great Recession, Household Income, and Children's Test Scores," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(3), pages 555-580, September.
    15. Francesco Ferrante, 2017. "Assessing Quality in Higher Education: Some Caveats," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(2), pages 727-743, March.
    16. Bütikofer, Aline & Mølland, Eirin & Salvanes, Kjell G., 2018. "Childhood nutrition and labor market outcomes: Evidence from a school breakfast program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 62-80.
    17. Niki, Minae, 2024. "Does the reduction in instruction time affect student achievement and motivation? Evidence from Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    18. Rieger, Matthias & Wagner, Natascha, 2015. "Child health, its dynamic interaction with nutrition and health memory – Evidence from Senegal," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 135-145.
    19. Damm, Anna Piil & Mattana, Elena & Nielsen, Helena Skyt & Rouland, Benedicte, 2021. "Academic achievement and wellbeing of dual language learners: Evidence from a busing program," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    20. Destin, Mesmin, 2013. "Integrating resource-based and person-based approaches to understanding wealth effects on school achievement," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 171-178.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:99:y:2025:i:c:s0038012125000564. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/seps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.