IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v23y2009i2p144-156.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Innovative methods in assessing political risk for business internationalization

Author

Listed:
  • Rios-Morales, Ruth
  • Gamberger, Dragan
  • Smuc, Tom
  • Azuaje, Francisco

Abstract

Political risk assessment, together with portfolio analysis, has become an important part of international business investment decision making. In this paper, by using different knowledge discovery techniques, we attempt to assess the relevance and actionability of [`]good governance' indicators in political risk assessment. For that purpose, we have integrated good governance indicators data with political instability classification from the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) research. From this study, two models that capture the intuitive reasoning of investors have been developed. The usefulness of the models has been evaluated by comparison with factual investment data. Our findings suggest that quantitative indicators of good governance may provide the basis for accurate and meaningful models for the assessment and prediction of political risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Rios-Morales, Ruth & Gamberger, Dragan & Smuc, Tom & Azuaje, Francisco, 2009. "Innovative methods in assessing political risk for business internationalization," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 144-156, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:23:y:2009:i:2:p:144-156
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275-5319(08)00020-2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luiz R. de Mello Jr., 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: A Selective Survey," Studies in Economics 9701, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 1997. "Why Worry About Corruption?," IMF Economic Issues 1997/003, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Stephen J Kobrin, 1979. "Political Risk: A Review and Reconsideration," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 10(1), pages 67-80, March.
    4. Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 1-11, February.
    5. Kennedy, Charles Jr., 1988. "Political risk management: A portfolio planning model," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 26-33.
    6. Treisman, Daniel, 2000. "The causes of corruption: a cross-national study," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 399-457, June.
    7. Saul Estrin & Klaus E. Meyer (ed.), 2004. "Investment Strategies in Emerging Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3378.
    8. Oetzel, Jennifer, 2005. "Smaller may be beautiful but is it more risky? Assessing and managing political and economic risk in Costa Rica," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 765-790, December.
    9. Luiz de Mello, 1997. "Foreign direct investment in developing countries and growth: A selective survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 1-34.
    10. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiayan YU & Jingqian ZHANG & Hee Eun SHIN & Jooan KONG, 2019. "Revisiting the Economic Crisis after a Decade: Statistical and Machine Learning Perspectives," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 14-19.
    2. Jianping Li & Xiaolei Sun & Fei Wang & Dengsheng Wu, 2015. "Risk integration and optimization of oil-importing maritime system: a multi-objective programming approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 234(1), pages 57-76, November.
    3. Muhammad Azam & Muhammad Khan & Nasir Iqbal, 2012. "Impact of Political Risk and Uncertainty on FDI in South Asia," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(1), pages 59-77, September.
    4. Matkovskyy, Roman & Bouraoui, Taoufik & Hammami, Helmi, 2016. "Analysing the financial strength of Tunisia: An approach to estimate an index of financial safety," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 485-493.
    5. Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming & Li, Jianping, 2016. "Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 234-245.
    6. Jens Prüfer & Patricia Prüfer, 2018. "Data science for institutional and organizational economics," Chapters, in: Claude Ménard & Mary M. Shirley (ed.), A Research Agenda for New Institutional Economics, chapter 28, pages 248-259, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Determinants of the domestic credits in developing economies: The role of political risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 430-443.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leonardo Becchetti & Nada Kobeissi, 2010. "Role of Governance and Institutional Environment in Affecting Cross Border M&As, Alliances and Project Financing: Evidence from Emerging Markets," CEIS Research Paper 156, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 28 May 2010.
    2. Manamba EPAPHRA & John MASSAWE, 2017. "The Effect of Corruption on Foreign Direct Investment: A Panel Data Study," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 19-54, March.
    3. Oto-Peralías, Daniel & Romero-Ávila, Diego & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2013. "Does fiscal decentralization mitigate the adverse effects of corruption on public deficits?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 205-231.
    4. Ghulam Shabbir & Mumtaz Anwar & Shahid Adil, 2016. "Corruption, Political Stability and Economic Growth," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 689-702.
    5. Yan Leung Cheung & P. Raghavendra Rau & Aris Stouraitis, 2012. "How much do firms pay as bribes and what benefits do they get? Evidence from corruption cases worldwide," NBER Working Papers 17981, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    7. Arminen, Heli & Menegaki, Angeliki N., 2019. "Corruption, climate and the energy-environment-growth nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 621-634.
    8. Garmaise, Mark J & Liu, Jun, 2005. "Corruption, Firm Governance, and the Cost of Capital," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt29403706, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    9. Jennifer Hunt, 2007. "Bribery in Health Care in Peru and Uganda," NBER Working Papers 13034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Berdiev, Aziz N. & Kim, Yoonbai & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2013. "Remittances and corruption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 182-185.
    11. Dreher, Axel & Kotsogiannis, Christos & McCorriston, Steve, 2007. "Corruption around the world: Evidence from a structural model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 443-466, September.
    12. Günther G. Schulze & Bambang Suharnoko Sjahrir & Nikita Zakharov, 2016. "Corruption in Russia," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(1), pages 135-171.
    13. Keith Blackburn & Niloy Bose & M. Emranul Haque, 2011. "Public Expenditures, Bureaucratic Corruption And Economic Development," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(3), pages 405-428, June.
    14. Silvio Traverso & Guido Bonatti, 2015. "Education and FDI: An Insight from US Outflows," Journal of Social Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(3), pages 101-116.
    15. Asiedu, Elizabeth, 2002. "On the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Countries: Is Africa Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 107-119, January.
    16. Arvind K. Jain, 2011. "Corruption: Theory, Evidence and Policy," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(02), pages 3-9, July.
    17. Aidt, Toke & Dutta, Jayasri & Sena, Vania, 2008. "Governance regimes, corruption and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 195-220, June.
    18. Aidt, T. & Dutta, J. & Vania Sena, 2005. "Growth, Governance and Corruption in the Presence of Threshold Effects: Theory and Evidence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0540, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Jiang, Liangliang & Wang, Chong, 2024. "Lending corruption and bank loan contracting: Cross-Country evidence," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2).
    20. Cooray, Arusha & Jha, Chandan Kumar & Panda, Bibhudutta, 2023. "Corruption and assortative matching of partners in international trade," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:23:y:2009:i:2:p:144-156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.