IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v99y2025ics1059056025001959.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring dynamic extreme dependence of oil and agricultural markets

Author

Listed:
  • Kisswani, Khalid M.
  • Lahiani, Amine
  • Fikru, Mahelet G.

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic extreme dependence between oil markets and a set of non-exploited agricultural assets (Barley, coffee, maize, rice, sorghum, sugar, wheat) prices using 1990–2023 monthly prices data. Our time-varying copula models allow us to investigate nonlinear and asymmetric dependence between pairwise assets. We find evidence of positive exceedance correlation at small and medium quantiles/thresholds and negative exceedance correlation for quantiles higher than 0.6 for five out of seven food assets. Findings also indicate a tent-shaped quantile dependence for all food assets and demonstrate a time variation in the association path between oil and food asset returns. Important policy implications are derived from empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Kisswani, Khalid M. & Lahiani, Amine & Fikru, Mahelet G., 2025. "Exploring dynamic extreme dependence of oil and agricultural markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:99:y:2025:i:c:s1059056025001959
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056025001959
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2025.104032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Boachie, Micheal Kofi & Suleman, Muhammed Tahir & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Structure dependence between oil and agricultural commodities returns: The role of geopolitical risks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    2. Virbickaitė, Audronė & Nguyen, Hoang & Tran, Minh-Ngoc, 2023. "Bayesian predictive distributions of oil returns using mixed data sampling volatility models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    3. Aloui, Riadh & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "A time-varying copula approach to oil and stock market dependence: The case of transition economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 208-221.
    4. Giordani, Paolo E. & Rocha, Nadia & Ruta, Michele, 2016. "Food prices and the multiplier effect of trade policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 102-122.
    5. Gardebroek, Cornelis & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2013. "Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 119-129.
    6. Chin Man Chui & Jian Yang, 2012. "Extreme Correlation of Stock and Bond Futures Markets: International Evidence," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 565-587, August.
    7. Zhifeng Dai & Tingyu Li & Mi Yang, 2022. "Forecasting stock return volatility: The role of shrinkage approaches in a data‐rich environment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 980-996, August.
    8. Ding Chen & Umar Muhammad Gummi & Shan-Bing Lu & Asiya Mu'azu, 2020. "Modelling the impact of oil price fluctuations on food price in high and low-income oil exporting countries," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 66(10), pages 458-468.
    9. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Susan Thorp, 2016. "Crude Oil and Agricultural Futures: An Analysis of Correlation Dynamics," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 522-544, June.
    10. Rubén Loaiza‐Maya & Michael S. Smith & Worapree Maneesoonthorn, 2018. "Time series copulas for heteroskedastic data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 332-354, April.
    11. Miljkovic, Dragan & Vatsa, Puneet, 2023. "On the linkages between energy and agricultural commodity prices: A dynamic time warping analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Liu, Xiang-dong & Pan, Fei & Yuan, Lin & Chen, Yu-wang, 2019. "The dependence structure between crude oil futures prices and Chinese agricultural commodity futures prices: Measurement based on Markov-switching GRG copula," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 999-1012.
    13. Dahl, Roy Endré & Oglend, Atle & Yahya, Muhammad, 2020. "Dynamics of volatility spillover in commodity markets: Linking crude oil to agriculture," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    14. Nicola, Francesca de & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2016. "Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-41.
    15. Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
    16. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    17. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    18. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of market uncertainties on agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    19. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Kuo, Hsiao-I & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2010. "Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2517-2525, August.
    20. Umar, Zaghum & Jareño, Francisco & Escribano, Ana, 2021. "Agricultural commodity markets and oil prices: An analysis of the dynamic return and volatility connectedness," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    21. Kumar, Satish & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Raheem, Ibrahim Dolapo & Hille, Erik, 2021. "Time-varying dependence structure between oil and agricultural commodity markets: A dependence-switching CoVaR copula approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    22. Jozef Baruník & Tobias Kley, 2019. "Quantile coherency: A general measure for dependence between cyclical economic variables," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(2), pages 131-152.
    23. David Ardia, 2009. "Bayesian estimation of a Markov-switching threshold asymmetric GARCH model with Student-t innovations," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 105-126, March.
    24. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2011. "World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 488-496, May.
    25. Li, Houjian & Huang, Xinya & Guo, Lili, 2023. "Extreme risk dependence and time-varying spillover between crude oil, commodity market and inflation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    26. Duc Hong Vo & Tan Ngoc Vu & Anh The Vo & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Modeling the Relationship between Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-41, April.
    27. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    28. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Dynamic volatility spillover effects between oil and agricultural products," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    29. Hokey Min, 2022. "Examining the Impact of Energy Price Volatility on Commodity Prices from Energy Supply Chain Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-16, October.
    30. Dai, Yun-Shi & Dai, Peng-Fei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2023. "Tail dependence structure and extreme risk spillover effects between the international agricultural futures and spot markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    31. Christian Conrad & Onno Kleen, 2020. "Two are better than one: Volatility forecasting using multiplicative component GARCH‐MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 19-45, January.
    32. Franz Sinabell, 2008. "Development of Input and Output Prices in Farming," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 13(4), pages 184-191, December.
    33. Christian M. Hafner & Hans Manner, 2012. "Dynamic stochastic copula models: estimation, inference and applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 269-295, March.
    34. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    35. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    36. El Montasser, Ghassen & Malek Belhoula, Mohamed & Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2023. "Co-explosivity versus leading effects: Evidence from crude oil and agricultural commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    37. Yahya, Muhammad & Oglend, Atle & Dahl, Roy Endré, 2019. "Temporal and spectral dependence between crude oil and agricultural commodities: A wavelet-based copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 277-296.
    38. Harri, Ardian & Nalley, Lanier & Hudson, Darren, 2009. "The Relationship between Oil, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 501-510, August.
    39. Campbell, Rachel A.J. & Forbes, Catherine S. & Koedijk, Kees G. & Kofman, Paul, 2008. "Increasing correlations or just fat tails?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 287-309, March.
    40. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    41. López Cabrera, Brenda & Schulz, Franziska, 2016. "Volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 190-203.
    42. Jammazi, Rania & Tiwari, Aviral Kr. & Ferrer, Román & Moya, Pablo, 2015. "Time-varying dependence between stock and government bond returns: International evidence with dynamic copulas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 74-93.
    43. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2018. "Risk spillover between energy and agricultural commodity markets: A dependence-switching CoVaR-copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 14-27.
    44. Alex F. McCalla, 2009. "World Food Prices: Causes and Consequences," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(1), pages 23-34, March.
    45. Eleni Zafeiriou & Garyfallos Arabatzis & Paraskevi Karanikola & Stilianos Tampakis & Stavros Tsiantikoudis, 2018. "Agricultural Commodities and Crude Oil Prices: An Empirical Investigation of Their Relationship," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-11, April.
    46. Campiche, Jody L. & Bryant, Henry L. & Richardson, James W. & Outlaw, Joe L., 2007. "Examining the Evolving Correspondence Between Petroleum Prices and Agricultural Commodity Prices," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 9881, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    47. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2011. "World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2935-2943, May.
    48. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2012. "Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1098-1104.
    49. Simran & Anil K. Sharma, 2024. "Volatility dynamics in energy and agriculture markets: An analysis of domestic and global uncertainty factors," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(5), pages 580-600, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Gök, Remzi & Gemici, Eray & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2025. "Risk spillovers and diversification benefits between crude oil and agricultural commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA).
    2. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Quantile risk spillovers between energy and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Cheng, Natalie Fang Ling & Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Poon, Wai Ching & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "The US-China trade war and the volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    5. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Hasan, Mudassar & Arif, Muhammad & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Oil and gold as a hedge and safe-haven for metals and agricultural commodities with portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    6. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Shahzad, Umer & Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2023. "Investigating the spillovers between energy, food, and agricultural commodity markets: New insights from the quantile coherency approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 63-80.
    7. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2019. "The Relationship Between Fuel and Food Prices: Methods, Outcomes, and Lessons for Commodity Price Risk Management," CAMA Working Papers 2019-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Sergio Adriani David & Claudio M. C. Inácio & José A. Tenreiro Machado, 2019. "Ethanol Prices and Agricultural Commodities: An Investigation of Their Relationship," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-25, August.
    9. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang, 2022. "Dynamic correlation between crude oil and agricultural futures markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1798-1849, August.
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Ojonugwa Usman & Busra Agan, 2024. "On the connectedness of commodity markets: A critical and selective survey of empirical studies and bibliometric analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 97-136, February.
    11. Hanif, Waqas & Areola Hernandez, Jose & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "Tail dependence risk and spillovers between oil and food prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 195-209.
    12. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yizhi & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ma, Zhenyu, 2023. "Alarming contagion effects: The dangerous ripple effect of extreme price spillovers across crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and agriculture futures markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    13. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Dynamic volatility spillover effects between oil and agricultural products," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    14. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    15. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    16. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Baumöhl, Eduard & Sarwar, Suleman & Výrost, Tomáš, 2021. "Connectedness between energy and nonenergy commodity markets: Evidence from quantile coherency networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Copula-based local dependence among energy, agriculture and metal commodities markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    18. Yahya, Muhammad & Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Wadström, Christoffer & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2022. "Dependence structure between the international crude oil market and the European markets of biodiesel and rapeseed oil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 594-605.
    19. Waseem Khan & Vishal Sharma & Saghir Ahmad Ansari, 2022. "Modeling the dynamics of oil and agricultural commodity price nexus in linear and nonlinear frameworks: A case of emerging economy," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1733-1784, August.
    20. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on multi-scale asymmetric spillovers between food and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:99:y:2025:i:c:s1059056025001959. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.