IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/retrec/v112y2025ics0739885925000757.html

Introduction vs. price change of road toll – a panel data analysis of revealed preferences

Author

Listed:
  • Bayer, Stian Brosvik
  • Flügel, Stefan

Abstract

Cordon-based congestion charging systems effectively reduce traffic, with initial implementations often achieving 15–20 % reductions in vehicle volumes, as observed in Singapore, London, and Stockholm. However, subsequent toll increases typically produce much smaller elasticities, a phenomenon known as "Large Elasticity at Introduction" (LEI). This suggests that introducing tolls on previously free roads triggers stronger behavioral responses than adjusting toll rates on already tolled roads.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayer, Stian Brosvik & Flügel, Stefan, 2025. "Introduction vs. price change of road toll – a panel data analysis of revealed preferences," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:112:y:2025:i:c:s0739885925000757
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101592
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739885925000757
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101592?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. María Yáñez & Patricio Mansilla & Juan de Ortúzar, 2010. "The Santiago Panel: measuring the effects of implementing Transantiago," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 125-149, January.
    2. Phang, Sock-Yong & Toh, Rex S., 1997. "From manual to electronic road congestion pricing: The Singapore experience and experiment," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 97-106, June.
    3. ., 2017. "The concept of economic welfare," Chapters, in: Morality and Power, chapter 6, pages 59-68, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Cools, Mario & Fabbro, Yannick & Bellemans, Tom, 2016. "Free public transport: A socio-cognitive analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 96-107.
    5. Andrew T. Ching & David Granlund & David Sundström, 2022. "Quantifying the Zero-Price Effect in the Field: Evidence from Swedish Prescription Drug Choices," Journal of the Association for Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(2), pages 175-185.
    6. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, Enero-Abr.
    7. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Hamilton, Carl, 2016. "Why experience changes attitudes to congestion pricing: The case of Gothenburg," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-16.
    8. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Driouchi, Ahmed & Chetioui, Youssef & Baddou, Meryem, 2011. "How zero price affects demand?: experimental evidence from the Moroccan telecommunication market," MPRA Paper 32352, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jul 2011.
    10. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    11. Börjesson, Maria & Kristoffersson, Ida, 2018. "The Swedish congestion charges: Ten years on," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 35-51.
    12. Eliasson, Jonas, 2014. "The Stockholm congestion charges: an overview," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:7, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    13. Obermeyer, Andy & Treiber, Martin & Evangelinos, Christos, 2015. "On the identification of thresholds in travel choice modelling," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 1-9.
    14. Evangelinos, Christos & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan & Marcucci, Edoardo & Gatta, Valerio, 2018. "Pricing workplace parking via cash-out: Effects on modal choice and implications for transport policy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 369-380.
    15. Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2016. "The private (unnoticed) welfare cost of highway speeding behavior from time saving misperceptions," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 7, pages 24-37.
    16. Jeppe Rich & Stefan L. Mabit, 2016. "Cost damping and functional form in transport models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(5), pages 889-912, September.
    17. McFadden, Daniel, 1974. "The measurement of urban travel demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 303-328, November.
    18. Kristina Shampanier & Nina Mazar & Dan Ariely, 2007. "Zero as a Special Price: The True Value of Free Products," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(6), pages 742-757, 11-12.
    19. Elisabetta Cherchi & Cinzia Cirillo, 2014. "Understanding variability, habit and the effect of long period activity plan in modal choices: a day to day, week to week analysis on panel data," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(6), pages 1245-1262, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lehe, Lewis J. & Devunuri, Saipraneeth, 2022. "Large Elasticity at Introduction," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    2. Haghani, Milad & Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Hensher, David A., 2021. "The landscape of econometric discrete choice modelling research," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    3. Geng, Kexin & Wang, Yacan & Cherchi, Elisabetta & Guarda, Pablo, 2023. "Commuter departure time choice behavior under congestion charge: Analysis based on cumulative prospect theory," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Börjesson, Maria & Kristoffersson, Ida, 2018. "The Swedish congestion charges: Ten years on," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 35-51.
    5. De Borger, Bruno & Glazer, Amihai, 2017. "Support and opposition to a Pigovian tax: Road pricing with reference-dependent preferences," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 31-47.
    6. Benjamin L. Collier & Daniel Schwartz & Howard C. Kunreuther & Erwann O. Michel‐Kerjan, 2022. "Insuring large stakes: A normative and descriptive analysis of households' flood insurance coverage," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(2), pages 273-310, June.
    7. Keya, Nowreen & Anowar, Sabreena & Eluru, Naveen, 2019. "Joint model of freight mode choice and shipment size: A copula-based random regret minimization framework," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 97-115.
    8. Mark Schneider & Mikhael Shor, 2016. "The Common Ratio Effect in Choice, Pricing, and Happiness Tasks," Working papers 2016-29, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    9. Roger J. Jiao & Feng Zhou & Chih-Hsing Chu, 2017. "Decision theoretic modeling of affective and cognitive needs for product experience engineering: key issues and a conceptual framework," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 28(7), pages 1755-1767, October.
    10. Qian Wu & Monique Vanerum & Anouk Agten & Andrés Christiansen & Frank Vandenabeele & Jean-Michel Rigo & Rianne Janssen, 2021. "Certainty-Based Marking on Multiple-Choice Items: Psychometrics Meets Decision Theory," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 518-543, June.
    11. Tian, Ye & Li, Yudi & Sun, Jian, 2022. "Stick or carrot for traffic demand management? Evidence from experimental economics," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 235-254.
    12. Nina Mazar & Kristina Shampanier & Dan Ariely, 2017. "When Retailing and Las Vegas Meet: Probabilistic Free Price Promotions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 250-266, January.
    13. Huong Trang Kim & Quang Nguyen, 2024. "Linking top managers’ behavioural traits with business practices and firm performance," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 18(11), pages 3253-3296, November.
    14. Hong Fu & Yuehua Zhang & Yinuo An & Li Zhou & Yanling Peng & Rong Kong & Calum G. Turvey, 2022. "Subjective and objective risk perceptions and the willingness to pay for agricultural insurance: evidence from an in-the-field choice experiment in rural China," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 47(1), pages 98-121, March.
    15. Li, Baibing & Hensher, David A., 2017. "Risky weighting in discrete choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-21.
    16. Hu, Yan & Feng, Tao & Li, Mengxia, 2025. "Examining the temporary use behavior of autonomous vehicles under uncertainty: A stated preference analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    17. Galarza, Francisco, 2009. "Choices under Risk in Rural Peru," MPRA Paper 17708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Julia Ihli, Hanna & Chiputwa, Brian & Winter, Etti & Gassner, Anja, 2022. "Risk and time preferences for participating in forest landscape restoration: The case of coffee farmers in Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    19. Sergi, Brian & Azevedo, Inês & Xia, Tian & Davis, Alex & Xu, Jianhua, 2019. "Support for Emissions Reductions Based on Immediate and Long-term Pollution Exposure in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 26-33.
    20. Evangelinos, Christos & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan & Marcucci, Edoardo & Gatta, Valerio, 2018. "Pricing workplace parking via cash-out: Effects on modal choice and implications for transport policy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 369-380.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:112:y:2025:i:c:s0739885925000757. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/620614/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.