IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/regeco/v60y2016icp292-299.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of negative house price changes on migration: Evidence across U.S. housing downturns

Author

Listed:
  • Foote, Andrew

Abstract

I estimate the extent to which negative house price changes lower mobility for some homeowners. My identification strategy employs a reduced-form model that uses variation in state-year house price changes, as well as variation in a homeowner's exposure to house price changes, based on pre-existing leverage. I find that house price declines cause migration to decrease for homeowners that have low equity, but that there is no effect for the most leveraged homeowners. Differences in default costs across states do not appear to affect the mobility of homeowners in negative equity. Housing lock-in effects are larger in the most recent recession, affecting both in-state and interstate migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Foote, Andrew, 2016. "The effects of negative house price changes on migration: Evidence across U.S. housing downturns," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 292-299.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:60:y:2016:i:c:p:292-299
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.08.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046216301429
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.08.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Janet Currie & Erdal Tekin, 2015. "Is There a Link between Foreclosure and Health?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 63-94, February.
    2. Raven E. Saks & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(4), pages 697-739.
    3. Chan, Sewin, 2001. "Spatial Lock-in: Do Falling House Prices Constrain Residential Mobility?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 567-586, May.
    4. Valletta, Robert G., 2013. "House lock and structural unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 86-97.
    5. Ay?egül ?ahin & Joseph Song & Giorgio Topa & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "Mismatch Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3529-3564, November.
    6. Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2012. "Negative equity does not reduce homeowners’ mobility," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Feb, pages 1-17.
    7. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    8. Andrea J. Heuson & Gary Painter, 2014. "The Impact of the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 on Housing Turnover in the U.S. Single-Family Residential Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 869-899, December.
    9. Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Internal Migration in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 173-196, Summer.
    10. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    11. Charles Towe & Chad Lawley, 2013. "The Contagion Effect of Neighboring Foreclosures," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 313-335, May.
    12. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Dennett, Julia, 2013. "Are American homeowners locked into their houses? The impact of housing market conditions on state-to-state migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 322-337.
    13. Patrick Bajari & Phoebe Chan & Dirk Krueger & Daniel Miller, 2013. "A Dynamic Model Of Housing Demand: Estimation And Policy Implications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(2), pages 409-442, May.
    14. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "Housing busts and household mobility: an update," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 18(Nov), pages 1-15.
    15. Ferreira, Fernando & Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 2010. "Housing busts and household mobility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 34-45, July.
    16. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
    17. Henry S. Farber, 2012. "Unemployment in the Great Recession: Did the Housing Market Crisis Prevent the Unemployed from Moving to Take Jobs?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 520-525, May.
    18. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
    19. Andra C. Ghent & Marianna Kudlyak, 2011. "Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from US States 1," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 3139-3186.
    20. Christopher F. Goetz, 2013. "Falling House Prices And Labor Mobility: Evidence From Matched Employer-Employee Data," Working Papers 13-43, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    21. Coulson, N. Edward & Grieco, Paul L.E., 2013. "Mobility and mortgages: Evidence from the PSID," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-7.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gaetano Basso & Francesco D’Amuri & Giovanni Peri, 2019. "Immigrants, Labor Market Dynamics and Adjustment to Shocks in the Euro Area," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 528-572, September.
    2. Michael Amior & Alan Manning, 2018. "The Persistence of Local Joblessness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1942-1970, July.
    3. Matt Kures & Steven C. Deller, 2023. "Growth in Commuting Patterns and Their Impacts on Rural Workforce and Economic Development," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 37(1), pages 54-63, February.
    4. Jingwen Tan & Shixi Kang, 2021. "Finding the Instrumental Variables of Household Registration: A discussion of the impact of China's household registration system on the citizenship of the migrant population," Papers 2112.07268, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    5. Niu, Dongxiao & Sun, Weizeng & Zheng, Siqi, 2021. "The role of informal housing in lowering China’s urbanization costs," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Koşar, Gizem & Ransom, Tyler & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2022. "Understanding migration aversion using elicited counterfactual choice probabilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 123-147.
    7. Jongkwan Lee, 2019. "The Local Economic Impact Of A Large Research University: Evidence From Uc Merced," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 316-332, January.
    8. Alm, James & Enami, Ali, 2017. "Do government subsidies to low-income individuals affect interstate migration? Evidence from the Massachusetts Health Care Reform," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 119-131.
    9. Ning Jia & Raven Molloy & Christopher Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2023. "The Economics of Internal Migration: Advances and Policy Questions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 144-180, March.
    10. Lina Meng & Xiao Xiao & Yinggang Zhou, 2023. "Housing Boom and Household Migration Decision: New Evidence from China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 453-479, October.
    11. Zhang, Lin & He, Xiaoxia & Jia, Zhenli, 2023. "Industrial agglomeration, public services and city size: Evidence from 286 cities in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brown, Jennifer & Matsa, David A., 2020. "Locked in by leverage: Job search during the housing crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 623-648.
    2. Jesse Bricker & Brian Bucks, 2013. "Household mobility over the Great Recession: evidence from the U.S. 2007-09 Survey of Consumer Finances panel," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Bricker, Jesse & Bucks, Brian, 2016. "Negative home equity, economic insecurity, and household mobility over the Great Recession," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Siddharth Kothari & Itay Saporta Eksten & Edison Yu, 2013. "The (Un)importance of Geographical Mobility in the Great Recession"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(3), pages 553-563, July.
    5. Chan, Sewin & Haughwout, Andrew & Tracy, Joseph, 2015. "How Mortgage Finance Affects the Urban Landscape," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 987-1045, Elsevier.
    6. Meekes, Jordy & Hassink, Wolter H.J., 2019. "The role of the housing market in workers′ resilience to job displacement after firm bankruptcy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 41-65.
    7. Marcus Moelbak Ingholt, 2017. "House Prices, Geographical Mobility, and Unemployment," Discussion Papers 17-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    8. Andersson, Fredrik & Mayock, Tom, 2014. "How does home equity affect mobility?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 23-39.
    9. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Dennett, Julia, 2013. "Are American homeowners locked into their houses? The impact of housing market conditions on state-to-state migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 322-337.
    10. Meekes, Jordy & Hassink, Wolter, 2017. "The Role of the Housing Market in Workers' Resilience to Job Displacement after Firm Bankruptcy," IZA Discussion Papers 10894, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Sterk, Vincent, 2015. "Home equity, mobility, and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 16-32.
    12. Bloze, Gintautas & Skak, Morten, 2016. "Housing equity, residential mobility and commuting," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 156-165.
    13. John P. Harding & Jing Li & Stuart S. Rosenthal & Xirui Zhang, 2022. "Forced moves and home maintenance: The amplifying effects of mortgage payment burden on underwater homeowners," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 498-533, June.
    14. Yuliya Demyanyk & Dmytro Hryshko & María Jose Luengo-Prado & Bent E. Sørensen, 2017. "Moving to a Job: The Role of Home Equity, Debt, and Access to Credit," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 149-181, April.
    15. J.W.A.M. Steegmans & W.H.J. Hassink, 2015. "Decreasing house prices and household mobility: An empirical study on loss aversion and negative equity," Working Papers 15-12, Utrecht School of Economics.
    16. Yuliya Demyanyk & Dmytro Hryshko & María Jose Luengo-Prado & Bent E. Sorensen, 2016. "Moving to a new job: the role of home equity, debt, and access to credit," Working Papers 16-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    17. Yagan, Danny, 2016. "The Enduring Employment Impact of Your Great Recession Location," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt12d0w9bs, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    18. Valletta, Robert G., 2013. "House lock and structural unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 86-97.
    19. van Veldhuizen, Sander & Vogt, Benedikt & Voogt, Bart, 2020. "Negative home equity reduces household mobility: Evidence from administrative data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    20. Asaf Bernstein, 2021. "Negative Home Equity and Household Labor Supply," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2963-2995, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mobility; Housing; House-Lock;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:60:y:2016:i:c:p:292-299. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.