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Housing busts and household mobility: an update

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  • Fernando Ferreira
  • Joseph Gyourko
  • Joseph Tracy

Abstract

This paper provides updated estimates of the impact of three financial frictions—negative equity, mortgage lock-in, and property tax lock-in—on household mobility. We add the 2009 wave of the American Housing Survey (AHS) to our sample and also create an improved measure of permanent moves in response to Schulhofer-Wohl’s (2011) critique of our earlier work (2010). Our updated estimates corroborate our previous results: Negative equity reduces household mobility by 30 percent, and $1,000 of additional mortgage or property tax costs reduces household mobility by 10 to 16 percent. Schulhofer-Wohl’s finding of a slight positive correlation between mobility and negative equity appears due to a large fraction of false positives, as his coding methodology has the propensity to misclassify almost half of the additional moves it identifies relative to our measure of permanent moves. This also makes his mobility measure dynamically inconsistent, as many transitions originally classified as a move are reclassified as a nonmove when additional AHS panels become available. We conclude with directions for future research, including potential improvements to measures of household mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2011. "Housing busts and household mobility: an update," Staff Reports 526, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:526
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Patrick Bayer & Fernando Ferreira & Robert McMillan, 2007. "A Unified Framework for Measuring Preferences for Schools and Neighborhoods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 588-638, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karahan, Fatih & Rhee, Serena, 2014. "Population aging, migration spillovers, and the decline in interstate migration," Staff Reports 699, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Apr 2017.
    2. Hilber, Christian A.L. & Lyytikäinen, Teemu, 2017. "Transfer taxes and household mobility: Distortion on the housing or labor market?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 57-73.
    3. Cunningham, Chris & Gerardi, Kristopher S. & Shen, Yannan, 2017. "Fracking and Mortgage Default," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Glaeser, Edward L., 2014. "Understanding housing: The intellectual legacy of John Quigley," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 3-12.
    5. Foote, Andrew, 2016. "The effects of negative house price changes on migration: Evidence across U.S. housing downturns," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 292-299.
    6. repec:taf:rsocec:v:75:y:2017:i:2:p:231-249 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Romain Bouis & Ane Kathrine Christensen & Boris Cournède, 2013. "Deleveraging: Challenges, Progress and Policies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1077, OECD Publishing.
    8. Andrew Caplin & Anna Cororaton & Joseph Tracy, 2015. "Is the FHA Creating Sustainable Homeownership?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 957-992, November.
    9. Steven Laufer & Andrew D. Paciorek, 2016. "The Effects of Mortgage Credit Availability : Evidence from Minimum Credit Score Lending Rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-098, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Davis, Morris A. & Fisher, Jonas D. M. & Veracierto, Marcelo, 2013. "Gross Migration, Housing and Urban Population Dynamics," Working Paper Series WP-2013-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    11. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States labor market: status quo or a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 405-451.
    12. Philippe Bracke & Christian Hilber & Olmo Silva, 2012. "Homeownerhip and Entrepreneurship," SERC Discussion Papers 0103, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    13. Cunningham, Chris & Reed, Robert R., 2013. "Negative equity and wages," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 841-849.
    14. Brian K. Bucks & Jesse Bricker, 2013. "Household mobility over the Great Recession: evidence from the U.S. 2007-09 Survey of Consumer Finances panel," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Christian A. L. Hilber & Teemu Lyytikäinen, 2012. "The Effect of the UK Stamp Duty Land Tax on Household Mobility," SERC Discussion Papers 0115, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    16. Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Unemloyment and Unobserved Credit Risk in the FHA Single Family Mortgage Insurance Fund," NBER Working Papers 18880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Philippe Bracke & Christian Hilber & Olmo Silva, 2012. "Homeownerhip and Entrepreneurship," SERC Discussion Papers 0103, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    18. Chan, Sewin & Haughwout, Andrew & Tracy, Joseph, 2015. "How Mortgage Finance Affects the Urban Landscape," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier.
    19. Fuster, Andreas & Guttman-Kenney, Benedict & Haughwout, Andrew F., 2016. "Tracking and stress-testing U.S. household leverage," Staff Reports 787, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Nov 2016.
    20. Chris Cunningham & Robert R. Reed, 2012. "Housing wealth and wage bargaining," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2012-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    21. Bloze, Gintautas & Skak, Morten, 2016. "Housing equity, residential mobility and commuting," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 156-165.
    22. Coulson, N. Edward & Grieco, Paul L.E., 2013. "Mobility and mortgages: Evidence from the PSID," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-7.
    23. Andersson, Fredrik & Mayock, Tom, 2014. "How does home equity affect mobility?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 23-39.
    24. Kevin J. Mumford & Katie Schultz, 2013. "The Effect of Underwater Mortgages on Unemployment," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1274, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    25. Jochen R. Andritzky, 2014. "Resolving Residential Mortgage Distress; Time to Modify?," IMF Working Papers 14/226, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing - Finance ; Equity ; Mortgages ; Property tax;

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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