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Zoning on the urban fringe: Results from a new approach to modeling land and housing markets

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  • Magliocca, Nicholas
  • McConnell, Virginia
  • Walls, Margaret
  • Safirova, Elena

Abstract

This paper uses an economic agent-based model of land use in a hypothetical urban fringe community to examine the effects of large-lot zoning on land conversion, land prices, and the spatial configuration and density of new development. The model incorporates the actions of heterogeneous housing consumers, developers, and farmer/landowners who make economic decisions in land and housing markets. The model allows for population growth and simulates the evolution of land use patterns and prices over a 20-year time period. Zoning regulations in the form of minimum lot size restrictions imposed in an outlying area are shown to have effects that vary with the stringency of the regulations: 2-acre minimum lot sizes have little effect on the spatial patterns of development, but they do increase land and housing prices and result in higher incomes in the region; 5-acre minimum lot sizes push development toward the city center, leaving agricultural land in the zoned region undeveloped until quite late in the simulation period. While house prices are higher with 5-acre zoning, land prices in the zoned region fall, highlighting the countervailing influences of lot size restrictions on land prices. The new modeling approach allows for the tracking of the transitional dynamics of development, both over space and time as the urban area grows.

Suggested Citation

  • Magliocca, Nicholas & McConnell, Virginia & Walls, Margaret & Safirova, Elena, 2012. "Zoning on the urban fringe: Results from a new approach to modeling land and housing markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 198-210.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:42:y:2012:i:1:p:198-210
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2011.08.012
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eric A. Hanushek & Kuzey Yilmaz, 2012. "Land Use Controls and the Provision of Education," NBER Working Papers 17730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Magliocca, Nicholas & McConnell, Virginia & Walls, Margaret, 2015. "Exploring sprawl: Results from an economic agent-based model of land and housing markets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 114-125.
    3. Tajibaeva, Liaila & Haight, Robert & Stephen, Polasky, 2014. "Welfare and Biodiversity Tradeoffs in Urban Open Space Protection," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170602, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Qin Fan & J. Andrew Hansz & Xiaoming Yang, 2016. "The Pricing Effects of Open Space Amenities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 244-271, April.
    5. Dascher, Kristof, 2012. "Home Voters, House Prices, and the Political Economy of Zoning," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62069, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Antonio Avendaño & Hernán Enríquez & Santiago Olarte, 2014. "Estructura urbana y precios del suelo en Bogotá," REVISTA ECONOMÍA & REGIÓN, UNIVERSIDAD TECNOLÓGICA DE BOLÍVAR, vol. 8(2), pages 49-80, December.
    7. Chen, Yong & Irwin, Elena G. & Jayaprakash, Ciriyam, 2011. "An Agent-Based Model of Exurban Land Development," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103641, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Urban model; Spatial land use; Zoning;

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R52 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Land Use and Other Regulations

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