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Zoning on the Urban Fringe: Results from a New Approach to Modeling Land and Housing Markets

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  • Magliocca, Nicholas
  • McConnell, Virginia

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Walls, Margaret

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Safirova, Elena

Abstract

This paper uses an economic agent-based model of land use in a hypothetical urban fringe community to examine the effects of large-lot zoning on land conversion, land prices, and the spatial configuration and density of new development. The model incorporates the actions of heterogeneous housing consumers, developers, and farmer/landowners who make economic decisions in land and housing markets. The model allows for population growth and simulates the evolution of land use patterns and prices over a 20-year time period. Zoning regulations in the form of minimum lot size restrictions imposed in an outlying area are shown to have effects that vary with the stringency of the regulations: 2-acre minimum lot sizes have little effect on the spatial patterns of development, but they do increase land and housing prices and result in higher incomes in the region; 5-acre minimum lot sizes push development toward the city center, leaving agricultural land in the zoned region undeveloped until quite late in the simulation period. While house prices are higher with 5-acre zoning, land prices in the zoned region fall, highlighting the countervailing influences of lot size restrictions on land prices. The new modeling approach allows for the tracking of the transitional dynamics of development, both over space and time as the urban area grows.

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  • Magliocca, Nicholas & McConnell, Virginia & Walls, Margaret & Safirova, Elena, 2012. "Zoning on the Urban Fringe: Results from a New Approach to Modeling Land and Housing Markets," RFF Working Paper Series dp-11-32, Resources for the Future.
  • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-11-32
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    Cited by:

    1. Jlenia Di Noia, 2022. "Agent-Based Models for Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Zones. A Review," Working Papers 2022.20, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Magliocca, Nicholas & McConnell, Virginia & Walls, Margaret, 2015. "Exploring sprawl: Results from an economic agent-based model of land and housing markets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 114-125.
    3. Walls, Margaret, 2012. "Markets for Development Rights: Lessons Learned from Three Decades of a TDR Program," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-49, Resources for the Future.
    4. Dascher, Kristof, 2012. "Home Voters, House Prices, and the Political Economy of Zoning," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62069, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Di Noia, Jlenia, 2022. "Agent-Based Models for Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Zones. A Review," FEEM Working Papers 322810, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Maria A. Cunha-e-Sa & Sofia F. Franco, 2013. "The effects of land-use development policies on forest management," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp576, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    7. Maria A. Cunha‐e‐Sá & Sofia F. Franco, 2017. "The Effects of Development Constraints on Forest Management at the Urban‐Forest Interface," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 99(3), pages 614-636, April.
    8. Antonio Avendano & Hernán Enríquez & Santiago Olarte, 2014. "Estructura urbana y precios del suelo en Bogotá," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 8(2), pages 49-80, December.
    9. Eric A. Hanushek & Kuzey Yilmaz, 2015. "Land-use Controls, Fiscal Zoning, and the Local Provision of Education," Public Finance Review, , vol. 43(5), pages 559-585, September.
    10. Koen de Koning & Tatiana Filatova & Okmyung Bin, 2019. "Capitalization of Flood Insurance and Risk Perceptions in Housing Prices: An Empirical Agent‐Based Model Approach," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(4), pages 1159-1179, April.
    11. Chen, Yong & Irwin, Elena G. & Jayaprakash, Ciriyam, 2011. "An Agent-Based Model of Exurban Land Development," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103641, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Eric A. Hanushek & Kuzey Yilmaz, 2012. "Land Use Controls and the Provision of Education," NBER Working Papers 17730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Tajibaeva, Liaila & Haight, Robert & Stephen, Polasky, 2014. "Welfare and Biodiversity Tradeoffs in Urban Open Space Protection," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170602, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    land use; agent-based model; zoning; urban sprawl;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

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