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The employment effects of a means-tested guaranteed income policy

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  • Verlaat, Timo
  • Todeschini, Federico
  • Ramos, Xavier

Abstract

Through a randomized controlled trial, we study the labor market effects of a generous means-tested guaranteed income policy targeting low-income families in Barcelona. Two years into the program, beneficiaries are 22 % less likely to work compared to subjects assigned to a control group. A lower phase-out of transfers attenuates negative employment effects and reduces the government cost per euro of benefit by two-thirds. Participation elasticities for a family of four range from 0.39 to 0.49. Treatment effects persisted at least 6 months after the program ended. We find indications that effects are driven by subjects with care duties, suggesting substitution of labor for care tasks.

Suggested Citation

  • Verlaat, Timo & Todeschini, Federico & Ramos, Xavier, 2025. "The employment effects of a means-tested guaranteed income policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:248:y:2025:i:c:s0047272725001185
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105420
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    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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